The renowned analyst who correctly predicted Bitcoin’s 2022 collapse has been accused of making inaccurate predictions and pumping low-ceiling altcoins.
Traders, whales, and HODLers could be driving the crypto market trajectory, but analysts mostly set the market sentiment, which serves as a guide for many in the space.
Crypto’s pseudonymous cryptanalyst Il Capo has a tight following on Twitter of around 541.9K followers.
The cryptanalyst was recently accused of “cherry picking” by another cryptocurrency and financial researcher, known on Twitter as FatManTerra.
Analysis or cherry picking?
In an in-depth tweet, FatMan presented a chart of Bitcoin price alongside Crypto Capo’s tweets following BTC’s all-time high. An interesting comparison shows how Capo’s soil analysis was followed by higher losses. Notably, most of Crypto Capo’s BTC price predictions have actually been negated by real price action.
Source: Fat Man Terra Twitter
On Nov. 29, following BTC’s all-time high, Capo shared with his followers that “HODL is the way.”
On the contrary, after November 29, BTC saw an uptrend of over 10% on the lower timeframe, while the long-term trend of the coin was trending down, dragging its price down over 20% in just a week.
Once again, in early January, Capo predicted that BTC’s bottom was near. Back then, Bitcoin’s price was fluctuating near the $43,000 mark. From the day of the tweet to Feb. 1, the price of BTC saw a 17% drop, falling to a low of $32,000 in the following days.
It seems we’ve hit rock bottom 🤝
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) January 13, 2022
On Jan. 13, Capo celebrated yet another BTC bottom at the $43,000 level when in reality the BTC price saw a retest of the lower $32,000 over the next 10 days. Furthermore, around the same time, BTC-RSI was trending down, showing high selling pressure.
$BTC
In my opinion, this will increase to $55,000 in the next few days
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) December 22, 2021
Around December, when Bitcoin’s price was at $48,000, Capo’s predictions of a surge to $55,000 also fell into disrepair as BTC faced strong rejection at $50,500.
Expect slightly less for $BTC and $ETH and even less for altcoins.
The short term bottom is not yet in, but 40k was the all time bottom in my opinion.
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) January 18, 2022
On Jan. 18, Capo called the $40,000 bottom, but the same didn’t happen and the price fell to the $32,000 level the following week, again invalidating the analyst’s low forecast.
On the contrary, when the analyst placed bearish bets on the price of BTC on Jan. 22, Bitcoin price surged 25% the following week after Capo made “predictions of a wick below $30,000.”
It’s not over imo, high probability of a wick under 30,000.
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) January 22, 2022
Finally, on Jan. 23, Capo reiterated how he was more invested in USDT due to the shaky BTC price, but in reality, Bitcoin price saw a medium-term surge before falling.
Capo shot in the dark
Interestingly, in March 2022, when BTC was hovering around the $40,000 mark, the analyst accurately predicted that the Bitcoin price would plummet by as much as 50%.
However, the same was not true of his March 2021 forecast, when he assumed BTC would trade between $200,000 and $500,000 before March 2022.
Here’s my bet: The $BTC peak for this cycle will be between $200,000 and $500,000 before March 2022.
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) March 11, 2021
As of this March, BTC has actually formed a bear flag after undergoing a 50% correction between November 2021 and January 2022. The bearish formation was confirmed in late April 2022, resulting in a 56% downtrend that saw Bitcoin hit $17,600 in mid-June.
BTC/USD | Source: Trade View
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