Bitcoin (BTC) has spent over a year in a downtrend since its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.
BTC price action has caused investors to lose as much as 77%, but how much lower can BTC/USD really go?
Bitcoin traders and analysts have long agreed that 2022 is the year of the largest cryptocurrency’s latest bear market.
After exiting all-time highs around $46,000 earlier in the year, the BTC/USD pair has offered little relief and has since returned to levels not seen since November 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
That has taken the pair to a bear market all-time low – after losing a maximum of around 77% since the last high, Bitcoin may have little room to fall.
However, this time it may be different. Cointelegraph takes a look at what some of the crypto market’s most popular commentators think when it comes to where Bitcoin will bottom.
CryptoBullet: “Convenient Buying” around $16,000
A well-known social media personality is sticking to a theory from early 2022 — and it’s all about a specific on-chain metric.
For CryptoBullet, Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) still provides a key insight into macro BTC price bottoms.
CVDD essentially counts how many “hodle” days a coin has accumulated when moved to a new wallet. It is expressed as a ratio of the total age of the market divided by 6 million, with the analysis resource Woobull explaining being a “calibration factor”.
In retrospect, CVDD has acted as a significant line in the sand, and if this time is no different, BTC/USD could already offer buyers the best possible profit opportunity.
According to Woobull, CVDD is currently around $15,900.
“I feel comfortable buying bitcoin here at CVDD,” CryptoBullet told Twitter followers on Nov. 26.
“Can it go deeper? Of course it can. If another crypto company goes bankrupt or something like that, $BTC will drop below CVDD, but not by much. Most of the downtrend is over.”Annotated chart on Bitcoin Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD). Source: CryptoBullet/Twitter
Filbfilb: $6,500 as “worst case scenario”
An old hand in the crypto market is constantly reevaluating how badly the bears might bite this time.
Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, recently told Cointelegraph that BTC/USD could hit $10,000 around the New Year if macro conditions worsen.
That was before the FTX debacle, however, and the resulting fuel added to the bear market fire caused it to reconsider.
So, in a livestream alongside co-founder Philip Swift, Filbfilb outlined areas of strong supply support as potential bottoms.
These vary, however — a large “ladder” of bids is just below the spot price, centered around $12,000 to $14,000. At the same time, ultimate support could come as high as $6,000.
Filbfilb also noted that a black swan event like more crypto bankruptcies could trigger a surge through the upper support field, opening the potential for $10,000 or less next.
However, a trip to the $6,000 zone is “unlikely” under the current circumstances, he advised.
BTC/USD 1-week candlestick chart (Bitstamp) with liquidity heatmap data. Source: TradingView
Lots of eyes on the $14,000 price tag
The upper band of Filbfilb’s bid support on stock order books is a popular target for a growing number of commentators.
Related: Will Bitcoin Hit $110,000 in 2023? 3 reasons to be bullish on BTC right now
As Cointelegraph reported, $14,000 is now a significant spot on the radar, and entries near it are already planned.
This area would also bring BTC/USD losses from all-time highs in line with those of previous bear markets.
BTC/USD Drawdown vs All-Time Highs Chart. Source: Glassnode
Not only that, but $13,900 forms a significant support line for weekly timeframes, notes trader and analyst Rekt Capital, a line that has remained untested since the second half of 2020.
Annotated BTC/USD chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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