How is this Bitcoin (BTC) bull market different from all previous ones? (Pre-halving analysis)

The current bull market differs from its predecessors in several ways.

So far, Bitcoin has experienced three halving events. The first was in 2012, followed by another in 2016, most recently in 2020. Only after each halving did Bitcoin skyrocket and reach new all-time highs.

In contrast, this time Bitcoin has already surpassed its previous high from 2021. Just last week, Bitcoin rose above $70,000, which is notable given the upcoming halving scheduled for mid-April.

The current Bitcoin rally is defying historical patterns

What further distinguishes this rally is the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs on US exchanges, a first in the digital asset industry.

The renowned analyst PlanB has confirmed this assessment and suggested a departure from historical patterns. A visual analysis of the graphs of past bull runs along the current trend highlighted the stark differences.

PlanB also pointed out a misconception about halvings: In the past, markets have not anticipated the impact of halving events in advance, but this time there is speculation that the price of BTC may already be priced in.

However, this has also been the case in previous events of this type and proved to be false as it is very difficult for the market to price in something as drastic as a reduction in supply creation.

The first three halvings were not priced in… pic.twitter.com/XUoxo4qA6d

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 11, 2024

Dramatic change in the Bitcoin halving cycle

According to another prominent analyst, Rekt Capital, there are typically four phases of the Bitcoin halving cycle.

First, there is the pre-halving rally, which occurs about 60 days before the event and is characterized by a rise in the price of Bitcoin to new local highs. Then comes the pre-halving retracement, where short-term traders sell their positions to capture profits, resulting in a temporary decline in Bitcoin price.

The second phase involves the final retracement before the halving, which occurs closer to the actual event and brings a deeper decline in Bitcoin price, a trend seen in previous cycles.

Next comes the reaccumulation phase, where the price of Bitcoin consolidates for several months after the halving. Rekt Capital noted that in this cycle, the reaccumulation range coincides with the new all-time high area, potentially leading to a shorter and less volatile reaccumulation phase.

Finally, Rekt also predicted the beginning of a parabolic uptrend phase, characterized by accelerated growth in Bitcoin price. However, the analyst believes that this phase could be shorter than in previous cycles due to a possible accelerated market cycle.

“Historically, this phase has lasted just over a year (~385 days), but with a possible accelerated cycle currently underway, this number could be halved in this market cycle.”

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