Here’s the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin (BTC) in 10 years, according to macro guru Raoul Pal

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal says that even in its worst-case scenario, Bitcoin (BTC) can still break out on its way to outperforming other asset classes over the next 10 years.

In a recent roundtable discussion on Scott Melker’s YouTube channel, the former Goldman Sachs executive explains that the more extreme an asset’s inherent volatility (VOL) is, the higher its price could multiply relative to less risky assets.

“Volatility gives the reward. Since this is a 70 vol asset, there are these 20x, 50, 100x [rewards] depending on which period you are looking at.

People just aren’t set up for it because they’re mean-reversionists. They think the world is cyclical and everything goes back to where it was, so every boom has a bust and every bust brings you back to where it started.

But that’s not what it is all about here. It is in an exponential trend, so each bust is significantly higher. I mean bitcoin $4,000, bitcoin $20,000. That’s low too low, that’s extraordinary. But people don’t see that. You’re not used to it. They don’t know how to deal with it. People have to learn. We all did it.”

Pal goes on to share his observations of being an early Bitcoin investor when the asset was valued well below $1,000, noting that he believes BTC will eventually be worth at least $100,000 and even up to $1 million dollar could rise.

“I never realized that in an exponential trend, it’s better to buy and hold and get into the big selloffs. I went back and looked at all the times I’ve traded bitcoin since 2013 when I first got in at $200.

I went up $1,000, so in two months it went up 5x and then fell back down 85%. I only kept it because I wanted to treat it like an option. I had a 10 year view.

I’ve said that over the next 10 to 20 years it’s probably going to be $100,000 worst case and $1 million best case.”

Finally, Pal mentions his other crypto investments, including leading smart contract Ethereum (ETH) and competing Layer 1 protocol Solana (SOL).

“I have a few different tokens. My main bets are Ethereum and Solana, but I have no idea if Solana will be something or not. I think that’s probably because network adoption seems to be as high as anything else, but the world can change quickly.

That being said I have a basket of balanced stuff because I assume I’m an idiot and don’t know how to pick the right things. That’s why I started a fund of hedge funds because I’d rather give my money to a bunch of people whose job it is to figure out what the next 100x or 1000x is than try to do it myself because it’s complicated…

Just a little basket full of stuff, just keep an eye on everything, see what moves, see how it works.”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has stabilized since the correction that began Aug. 18, and is currently down less than a percent, trading for $21,330.

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