The crypto bull run in 2024 is one of the strongest in Bitcoin history. What evidence supports this claim? Let's find out.
After rising to $73,750 on March 14, Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a period of price consolidation and has traded between $68,000 and $72,000 in subsequent sessions. This surge has sparked discussions about whether the crypto bull market has begun.
The rise in Bitcoin price is closely related to the upcoming BTC halving scheduled for April 19-20. During this event, the block reward for miners will be halved from 6.5 BTC to 3.25 BTC, which has historically impacted Bitcoin's supply and therefore its price.
According to James Check, a lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, the crypto market is transitioning from an “enthusiastic bull” phase to a potentially euphoric phase. This shift began in October 2023 and gained momentum when BTC reached its all-time high earlier this year.
Check suggests that the current bull market is among the strongest in Bitcoin's history and points to minimal corrections during the rally.
Furthermore, the rise in crypto prices is impacting not only trading but also labor markets within the industry. Despite the declining stagnation observed in previous years, the number of job vacancies in the crypto industry reached an annual high in March.
Similarly, data from CryptoJobsList shows a significant increase in job postings and applicants, reaching an annual record of 5,843 job applicants in March.
What is really happening? Has the 2024 Crypto Bull Market Officially Started? Let's find out.
What is a Crypto Bull Run?
A crypto bull run is a period of sustained upward trend in the prices of crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin and other major digital assets.
During a bull run, investor confidence and buying activity increase, driving prices higher. This surge often results in new all-time highs for various cryptos and attracts a lot of attention from both retail and institutional investors.
The current bull market is fueled by positive market sentiments, such as the approval of spot BTC ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and anticipation of the upcoming BTC halving.
However, it is important to note that bull runs are not unlimited and are often followed by periods of price correction or consolidation.
Crypto Bull Run History
The first notable uptrend occurred after Bitcoin's first halving in 2012. This event reduced the block reward from 50 to 25 BTC for the first time, thereby reducing the rate at which new Bitcoins came into circulation.
Although Bitcoin had relatively little exposure at the time, its price rose from double digits to over $1,000 in 2013, attracting the attention of the general public and marking the beginning of its journey into the financial spotlight.
BTC Halving Price Chart | Source: TradingView
However, this increase was followed by a rapid correction, with prices falling back to around $200 by 2015.
The second bull run also coincided with Bitcoin's second halving in 2016. As the block reward halved from 25 to 12.5 BTC, the price of Bitcoin exhibited bullish behavior, climbing from around $430 to over $750 in early June 2016.
Despite some volatility leading up to the halving, Bitcoin eventually rose to new highs, surpassing $19,000 in December 2017.
The third major bull market occurred after the halving in 2020 against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite the global economic uncertainty, Bitcoin price experienced bullish momentum after the halving, reaching around $15,000 in November 2020 and finally reaching a peak of almost $69,000 in November 2021.
Over these years, Bitcoin's price patterns followed established crypto bull run cycles, characterized by advances leading to halving events, followed by corrections and consolidation periods before reaching new all-time highs.
Evidence suggests we are in the next crypto bull run
Let's look at the signals that signal the start of the crypto bull market in 2024 and their implications.
Inflows into spot BTC ETFs
Since their launch in January 2024, spot BTC ETFs have experienced rapid growth, reaching a staggering $81 billion market cap as of April 10.
At the top are Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which together have 70% of assets under management (AUM).
These large inflows into BTC ETFs indicate growing investor interest and confidence in BTC and reflect bullish sentiment.
Furthermore, the steady increase in inflows coupled with slight volatility suggests a strong appetite for BTC investments, further supporting the narrative of a bull run.
Price stability
Another important indication of the beginning of a bull market is the observed price stability in BTC.
Despite market fluctuations, BTC has maintained a relatively tight trading range, with prices remaining consistently above $65,000 since reaching its all-time high.
Notably, BTC has repeatedly tested the $69,000-$70,000 mark over the past few weeks, finding strong support levels and potential for further upside.
BTC hash rate
The anticipation of the upcoming BTC halving is adding fuel to the bullish narrative.
With the BTC hash rate steadily rising and reaching 653 EH/s on April 10, the upcoming halving event is gaining significance.
As a result, the growing hash rate coupled with the upcoming halving event strengthens the bullish outlook for BTC.
Fear and Greed Index
The BTC Fear and Greed Index, which is consistently above 75 and even reached 90 at the time of BTC's all-time high in March, serves as another compelling indicator of the prevailing bullish sentiment.
High investor optimism, as reflected in the Fear and Greed Index, often correlates with rising price trends.
Rise in crypto stock prices
The price increase in crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase (COIN), Marathon Holdings (MARA), and Microstrategy (MSTR) further reinforces the bullish outlook for the crypto market.
These stocks have posted strong gains, with MSTR up over 300% and COIN up over 200% in the last six months alone, highlighting the underlying bullish sentiment in the market.
Crypto Bull Market Prediction: What Do Experts Think?
According to Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin rising to all-time highs before the halving is a positive sign. He suggests the continuation of the four-year cycle, indicating upside potential for the market.
#Bitcoin hitting an all-time high before the halving is a great signal.
Overall, the four-year cycle remains in place (or extended), meaning the markets' upside potential is huge.
If Bitcoin can do this, then I suspect the altcoins will be huge.
– Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 8, 2024
Van de Poppe also points out that if Bitcoin maintains its momentum, altcoins could also see significant growth.
Another analyst highlights the continued strength of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF and growing interest from long-term investors.
BlackRock’s Spot #Bitcoin ETF shows no signs of slowing down. Absolutely crazy 🤯
The new 9 now stands at over 500,000 BTC and IBIT at 250,000.
A new class of long-term investors is beginning to allocate with an eye on the next two to three decades.
This will be a decade-long bull market. pic.twitter.com/19DhkqVflQ
– The Bitcoin Therapist (@TheBTCTherapist) April 3, 2024
With over 500,000 BTC held by new investors and 250,000 by IBIT, there is a shift towards a long-term investment approach over decades. He expects this to be a multi-decade bull market.
Although these predictions are encouraging, it is important to take them with a grain of salt. Market fluctuations and unforeseen events can affect the performance of crypto assets.
You should conduct thorough research and seek advice from financial experts before making any investment decisions. Never forget the golden rule of investing: never invest more than you can afford to lose.
FAQs
How long does a crypto bull run last?
Crypto bull runs can last varying lengths of time, but typically last from several months to a few years. While the exact duration of a bull run is difficult to predict, it is influenced by factors such as market sentiment, investor activity, and external events.
Why does the crypto bull run happen every four years?
The crypto bull run often coincides with Bitcoin halving events. This process occurs every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, gradually reducing the speed at which new Bitcoins are created. The scarcity caused by halving events has historically led to increased demand and upward pressure on the Bitcoin price, which has contributed to the occurrence of bull runs.
What Causes a Crypto Bull Run?
Several factors can contribute to the start of a crypto bull run. Positive market sentiment, driven by factors such as regulatory clarity, institutional acceptance, technological advances and macroeconomic conditions, often plays a key role. However, it is important to note that bull runs are not unlimited and are typically followed by periods of price correction or consolidation.
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