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From banks to hedge funds

With anticipation surrounding Bitcoin ETFs from giants like BlackRock, Fidelity and Invesco and an expected halving in April 2024, predictions for Bitcoin price next year show a significant range. From JPMorgan to Standard Chartered Bank, here are the most notable 2024 estimates:

Pantera Capital: $150,000

In their August “Blockchain Letter,” Pantera Capital, led by Dan Morehead, forecast a possible increase to $147,843 after the halving in 2024. Using the stock-to-flow ratio (S2F), they believe that Pricing model suggests that Bitcoin’s valuation will be more pronounced compared to its scarcity.

Specifically, Pantera Capital stated: “The 2020 halving reduced the supply of new Bitcoins by 43% compared to the previous halving.” It had a 23% as large impact on the price.” Using history as a reference, This could indicate a rise from $35,000 before the halving to $148,000 after the halving. However, not all Bitcoin proponents are on board as they have witnessed failed predictions based on this model in the recent past.

Standard Chartered Bank: $120,000

In a recent July research report, Standard Chartered Bank offered an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s potential performance. The British multinational bank now expects the value of Bitcoin to rise to $50,000 by the end of the current year, with the potential to rise up to $120,000 by the end of 2024. This revised forecast from Standard Chartered represents an increase from their previous forecast from April, where they predicted a peak of $100,000 for Bitcoin.

The upward revision to the bank’s forecast is underpinned by several factors. The ongoing crisis in the banking sector is cited as the main reason for the possible price increase. Additionally, the report highlights the increasing profitability of Bitcoin miners as a crucial factor influencing price developments. Geoff Kendrick, head of FX and digital asset research, emphasizes the crucial role of miners. He notes: “This is because, in addition to maintaining the Bitcoin ledger, miners play a key role in determining the net supply of newly mined BTC.”

JPMorgan: $45,000 per Bitcoin

JPMorgan, one of the world’s leading investment banks, expects more muted growth for Bitcoin and predicts a rise to $45,000. This forecast is influenced by rising gold prices. Historically, Bitcoin and gold have shown correlation in their price movements, and with gold prices recently crossing $2,000 per ounce, this has strengthened JPMorgan’s conservative outlook on Bitcoin.

In a detailed note in May, JPMorgan strategists explained: “As the price of gold rises above $2,000, the value of gold held for investment purposes outside of central banks is approx [$3 trillion]. Consequently, this suggests a Bitcoin price of $45,000 based on the assumption that BTC will gain a similar reputation as gold among retail investors.”

Matrixport: $125,000 by the end of 2024

In July, Matrixport, a well-known crypto service provider, predicted that the price of Bitcoin could rise to as much as $125,000 by the end of 2024. This bullish outlook was based on historical price patterns and an important signal: Bitcoin’s recent breakout of $31,000 in mid-July 2024, marking its highest level in over a year. In the past, such milestones signaled the end of bear markets and the beginning of robust bull markets.

By comparing these patterns with historical data from 2015, 2019 and 2020, Matrixport estimated potential gains of up to 123% within twelve months and 310% within eighteen months. This represents potential Bitcoin prices of $65,539 and $125,731 within these respective time periods.

Tim Draper: $250,000

Tim Draper, a well-known venture capitalist, remains extremely bullish on Bitcoin. Although his previous prediction that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by June 2023 did not come to pass, he remains optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s long-term potential. In a July interview on Bloomberg TV, Draper attributed recent regulatory actions in the United States, such as against Coinbase and Binance, to BTC’s short-term bearish trend.

Despite these challenges, Draper continues to believe in the transformative power of Bitcoin and expects Bitcoin to potentially reach $250,000, although now possibly by 2024 or 2025. His confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to revolutionize finance and his Preserving long-term value remains unwavering.

Berenberg: $56,630 at Bitcoin Halving

The German investment bank Berenberg revised its forecast in July and assumes $56,630 by April 2024. This upward adjustment was supported by improved market sentiment driven by anticipation of the Bitcoin halving expected in April 2024 and growing interest from prominent institutional players.

Berenberg’s team of analysts, led by the insightful Mark Palmer, emphasizes its expectation of a significant increase in the value of Bitcoin in the coming months. This forecast is driven by two key factors: the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event and the growing enthusiasm of major institutions.

To underline his confidence in the market, Berenberg also reiterated his buy recommendation for Microstrategy shares. The bank revised its share price target for Microstrategy to $510 from $430, reflecting a higher valuation of the company’s BTC holdings and an improved outlook for its software business.

Blockware Solutions: $400,000

In an August analysis titled “2024 Halving Analysis: Understanding Market Cycles and Opportunities Created by the Halving,” Blockware Intelligence looked at the intriguing possibility that the Bitcoin price could reach $400,000 during the next halving period, expected in 2024/25 US dollars could reach.

A key factor identified in the research is the role of halvings in shaping Bitcoin’s market cycles. The report claims that miners, who are responsible for a significant portion of the selling pressure, receive newly minted BTC, a majority of which they must sell to cover operational costs. However, the halving events serve to weed out inefficient miners, resulting in less selling pressure.

As supply decreases due to halvings, the study emphasizes that demand becomes the primary determinant of BTC’s market price. Historical data suggests that a surge in demand typically follows halving events. Market participants with an understanding of the supply-side dynamics created by halvings are preparing to deploy capital at the first sign of bullish momentum, potentially leading to a significant price increase. This surge in demand is particularly evident in the current on-chain data and confirms the positive sentiment surrounding halving events.

Beyond these notable predictions, there are a plethora of other price predictions for BTC, ranging from the ambitious $1 million prediction from Cathie Wood (ARK Invest), $500,000 from Mike Novogratz (Galaxy Digital), $180,000 from Tom Lee (Fundstrat Global) and Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad) rich company) $100,000, Adam Back’s $100,000 and Arthur Hayes’ $70,000 prediction, highlighting the different perspectives on Bitcoin’s future value.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $26,286.

BTC below 23.6% Fib, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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