- One analyst noted that Bitcoin appears to be repeating the 2020 trend.
- BTC’s true price discovery run may have to wait until September 2024.
Bitcoin [BTC] The company recorded an all-time high of $73,835 on March 14, according to data from Coinbase. It has broken its previous ATH before the halving, which is expected to take place on April 23rd. However, estimates vary from April 15th to April 23rd.
This was not the case in the previous cycle when BTC traded at $9,000, just under half of its 2017 peak of $19.9k. This led one analyst to theorize that BTC could be experiencing an accelerated cycle, but the similarities remained.
The idea of retracement before halving
In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Rekt Capital explored the idea of how history keeps repeating itself. In 2020, BTC began recovering before the halving and settled into a 35-day retracement. The analyst expressed the idea of the same thing happening again.
Source: Rekt Capital on X (formerly Twitter)
The pre-halving rally lasted eight weeks in 2020, with the retracement expected to continue for another five weeks. This may not lead to a sharp decline in Bitcoin prices, but rather to find a support level and stay there for post-halving accumulation.
The chart shows that the parabolic uptrend only began 23 weeks after the halving date. In 2020, BTC moved quickly into price discovery and continued to soar until it reached $69,000 55 weeks or just over a year later.
If April 15 turns out to be the halving date, Bitcoin's true bull market could begin 23 weeks later, on September 23, 2024. Again, this is based on the analyst's perspective that history repeats itself.
How Deep Could BTC Retracement Go?
Source: Hyblock
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With prices attracted by liquidity, AMBCrypto has decided to rely less on history and more on the heatmap of liquidation levels to understand where Bitcoin might go next. The area between $73.8K and $75K was estimated to have multiple levels with $15 billion worth of liquidations.
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An estimated $19 billion in liquidations were recorded at the $74,000 level. In terms of support, $64.6K to $65.8K had multiple levels of liquidation worth $8 billion, as estimated by Hyblock data. Therefore, it is likely that the current Bitcoin decline would end at this support zone.
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