Crypto service provider Matrixport, one of the few companies to become bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) late last year, now expects the leading cryptocurrency to rally as high as $125,000 by the end of 2024.
The forecast is based on data showing that a multi-month bull market will unfold with a meteoric rise in market value once prices confirm the end of a bear market by hitting a 12-month high for the first time in at least a year.
This signal was triggered late last month after prices surpassed $31,000, its highest level since June 2022. Previous signals came in August 2012, December 2015, May 2019 and August 2020, with prices rising in subsequent years .
“On June 22, 2023, Bitcoin hit a new one-year high, marking the first time in a year. This signal has historically indicated the end of bear markets and the start of new crypto bull markets,” said Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at Matrixport, according to a report shared with CoinDesk.
“If history is any guide, bitcoin prices could be up +123% over 12 months and +310% over 18 months based on the average return of signals triggered in 2015, 2019 and 2020. That would take prices up to $65,539 over twelve months and $125,731 over eighteen months,” Thielen added.
Thielen ignored the 2012 signal and subsequent 5,285% price surge in 2013, calling it an “epic, disproportionate” bull market.
Matrixport’s view is consistent with Bitcoin’s tendency to see strong uptrends in the 12-18 months following the mining rewards halving. The fourth halving, which will lower the number of new coins paid per block from 6.5 BTC to 3.25 BTC, is scheduled to take place in March/April next year.
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