United States 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.8% on October 3, the highest level since 2007. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, said in a post on X (formerly Twitter) that the range between 2-year and 10-year government bonds The yield has fallen to 35 basis points from 109 basis points a few months ago. He warned that this should “put everyone on recession alert.”
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, warned in a recent lead to the collapse of companies. Some investors believe this could trigger a bull market for cryptocurrencies.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
It also looks like institutional investors have started to get comfortable with cryptocurrencies. The latest weekly Digital Asset Fund Flows Report from CoinShares shows inflows of $21 million into digital asset investment products for the first time in six weeks.
In this uncertain macroeconomic environment, let’s take a look at the charts to determine the next possible move.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $28,143 on October 2, but the long wick on the candle shows bears selling aggressively at higher levels. The bears tried to extend their lead on October 3, but the bulls held firm at $27,160.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The rising 20-day exponential moving average ($26,903) and the relative strength index (RSI) in positive territory suggest that bulls have the upper hand. Buyers will once again attempt to clear the upper resistance at $28,143.
A close above this level completes a short-term double bottom pattern with a target of $31,486.
This positive view will be invalidated if the price breaks again from the upper resistance and falls below the 20-day EMA. That could push the price up to $26,000. The BTC/USDT pair could then continue consolidating between $24,800 and $28,143 for a while.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) fell sharply from overhead resistance at $1,746 on October 2, suggesting that bears are closely guarding this level.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($1,640) is flattening and the RSI is near the middle, suggesting balance between supply and demand. If the price rises from the current level, the bulls will once again attempt to clear the hurdle at $1,746. If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair will complete a double bottom pattern with a target of $1,961.
On the other hand, if the price continues to decline and falls below the moving averages, it would suggest that the pair could extend its stay in the $1,531-$1,746 range for some time.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) jumped above the $220 resistance on October 2, but bulls failed to sustain the breakout, as shown by the long wick on the day’s candle.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The failure of bulls to sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($214) is a negative sign. It shows that traders are rushing to exit. The BNB/USDT pair could fall to the uptrend line next.
If the price recovers from this level, the bulls will once again attempt to push the pair above $220. A close above this resistance could signal the start of an upward move to $235 and then to $250. If the price instead breaks below the uptrend line, the pair could fall to the formidable support at $203.
XRP price analysis
Buyers pushed XRP (XRP) above the symmetrical triangle pattern on September 29th and then thwarted several attempts by the bears to pull the price back into the triangle.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Next, the bulls will attempt to clear the upper resistance at $0.56. If they are successful, it will signal the start of a new uptrend. The XRP/USDT pair could then begin its journey towards the pattern at $0.66.
On the other hand, if the price moves lower from $0.56 and breaks below the uptrend line, it will indicate that the bulls are booking profits. This could keep the pair in the range between $0.56 and $0.41 for a few more days.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) fluctuated in a wide range between $14 and $27.12. Price action over the past few days has resulted in the formation of a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Although setups formed within a range tend to be less reliable, they should not be neglected. If the price rises and breaks the neck line, the SOL/USDT pair could attempt a rise to $27.12 and eventually to the pattern target of $32.81.
The key support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($20.95). If the price falls below this level, it will indicate that the bulls have given up. That could open the door for a possible decline to $17.33.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) turned lower from $0.27 on October 2nd and reached the 20-day EMA ($0.25) on October 4th. This is an important level to keep an eye on in the short term.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price recovers from the 20-day EMA, it indicates a shift in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on downturns. The bulls will then attempt to push the price above $0.27 and start an uptrend to $0.29 and later to $0.32.
If the bears want to prevent the rally, they will have to push the price below the 20-day EMA. The ADA/USDT pair could then fall back to the key support at $0.24. The bulls are likely to defend this level vigorously.
Dogecoin price analysis
Bulls pushed Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 50-day SMA ($0.06) on October 2 but failed to sustain the higher levels. This suggests that the bears are selling on any minor recovery rally.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The DOGE/USDT pair has reached the impressive support at $0.06. Repeatedly retesting a support level within a short interval tends to result in weakening. If the $0.06 level is broken, the pair could fall to the next major support at $0.055.
A small advantage in favor of buyers is that the RSI has formed a bullish divergence. This suggests that the bears may be losing control. The indicators do not provide clarity about the next step. Therefore, it is best to wait for the price to close above the 50-day SMA or fall below $0.06 to place directional bets.
Related: Bitcoin traders are hoping that the $27,000 level will hold as BTC price ignores the volatile US dollar
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) fell below the 20-day EMA ($2.09) on September 30, and bears thwarted bulls’ attempts to recapture the level on October 1.
TON/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears are trying to consolidate their position by driving the price down to the 50-day SMA ($1.86). This level could lead to a recovery that is likely to encounter selling at the 20-day EMA.
If the price breaks away from this resistance, it indicates that sentiment has turned bearish and traders are selling on rallies. This increases the chances of a decline below the 50-day SMA.
On the contrary, if the price rises and rises above the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the markets have rejected the lower levels. The TON/USDT pair could then rise to $2.32, where the bears will once again try to stop the uptrend.
Polkadot price analysis
Polkadot (DOT) fell sharply from the 50-day SMA ($4.24) on October 2 and broke below the 20-day EMA ($4.10) on October 3.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Bears challenged key support at $3.91 on October 4, but the long tail of the candle indicates strong buying at lower levels. The RSI has formed a bullish divergence, suggesting that sellers may be losing control.
If bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the DOT/USDT pair could extend its stay in the $4.33-$3.91 range for some time. The bears need to sink the price below $3.91 to initiate the next leg of the downtrend to $3.50.
Polygon price analysis
After a tough battle between bulls and bears near the moving averages, Polygon (MATIC) rallied on October 4, suggesting that buyers are trying to take control.
MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls are attempting to build on this strength and push the price above the upper resistance at $0.60. If they succeed, it would be the beginning of a sustainable recovery. The MATIC/USDT pair could then rise to $0.70.
Contrary to this belief, a decline in the price below the 20-day EMA indicates that the bears are active at higher levels. The pair could then retest the crucial support at $0.49. This level is likely to lead to strong buying from bulls.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making their decision.
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