In the latest episode of The Market Report, Cointelegraph analyst and author Marcel Pechman discusses Standard Chartered Bank’s $120,000 bitcoin price expectation based on the impact of the halving. According to the report, higher miner profitability due to a pre-halving rally would “reduce net BTC supply.”
Pechman, on the other hand, doesn’t acknowledge the thesis as the mining difficulty will continue to increase and the news confirms Riot Platform’s investment in new ASIC gear. In fact, over the past 12 months, mining difficulty has increased by 73% while Bitcoin (BTC) price has increased by 58%.
Regarding the year-end bitcoin price prediction of $50,000, Pechman thinks that number is overly optimistic given the slim chance of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved by then. However, if the ETF is approved within the next six months, an estimated potential inflow of $5 billion could catapult the price of Bitcoin above $70,000.
For 2024, Pechman bumps his odds of spot bitcoin ETF approval to 30%, while Bloomberg analysts see an even higher odds of 50%. Given the sheer size of BlackRock and Fidelity, Pechman thinks an inflow of $10 billion in the first few months after the ETF’s launch is feasible, suggesting that Standard Chartered’s expectation of $120,000 could be on the conservative side.
Pechman says anticipation of ETF approval could impact the pre-halving rally, and he also explains why investors may be anticipating the move. Consequently, the pre-halving effect can lengthen or shorten if investors sell before the event occurs. Pechman’s recommendation is to avoid the fear of missing out or avoiding FOMO. If you missed an entry point, traders should either wait or wait for the dollar cost average.
Finally, Pechman analyzes the latest Glassnode on-chain analysis report for reaccumulation at $30,000. According to Pechman, “return to mean” is also prevalent in traditional markets. When investors don’t have the conviction to move the price, they fall back to the average levels of the past two or three years.
To learn more about Pechman’s Bitcoin halving strategy and the implications of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval, listen to The Market Report exclusively on Cointelegraph Markets & Research’s new YouTube channel.
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