Over the weekend, Bitcoin technical analyst and stock-to-flow model developer “PlanB” said that after the halving, “Bitcoin will be more scarce than gold and real estate.”
However, he added that he would not be surprised if Bitcoin's market cap, currently less than $1 trillion, remained below that of gold, currently less than $10 trillion.
With some basic calculations and assumptions, this implies a BTC price of more than $500,000 when dividing a $10 trillion market cap by 20 million coins.
Bitcoin may never fall below $31,000 again
However, halving gains are typically recognized a year after the event, so there is unlikely to be a massive price increase after April if history rhymes.
Furthermore, a tenfold increase in Bitcoin's market cap would require a massive influx of fresh capital, but given the current climate, that doesn't seem to be there at the moment.
On February 4, the analyst again referenced his S2F model, referring to Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, which is $31,000. Bitcoin has never fallen below the 200 WMA level before, leading the analyst to conclude:
“So $31,000 could be the absolute floor, and Bitcoin will never reach $31,000 again in my opinion.”
In the short term, analyst “CryptoHamster” identified a bullish pennant chart pattern. He said the breakout threatens to go lower, but a bounce could push prices to $45,550.
The analyst “Rekt Capital” also indicated an upward movement and explained:
“Bitcoin is on the verge of overriding its bearish divergence with a break of its RSI downtrend.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading down 0.5% on the day at $42,700.
Elsewhere in crypto markets
Crypto markets have been flat over the past 24 hours, with a total capitalization of $1.71 trillion during the Asian trading session on Monday morning.
Bitcoin has fallen to around $43,000 and appears to be heading towards resistance at $42,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum is down 0.4% on the day and falls below $2,300.
Most altcoins are in the red, with the exception of Chainlink (LINK) and Tron (TRX), which have gained a few percent on the day.
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