Bitcoin price could hit $45,000 this week as the SEC potentially greenlights the BTC Spot ETF

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• The Bitcoin Spot ETF could hit the market as soon as the day after the SEC's crucial vote on pending application decisions.
• The SEC must issue two sets of approvals, 19b-4 and S-1, filed by spot Bitcoin ETF applicants.
• Bitcoin price expects to rebound to the psychologically important $45,000 mark.

According to a Bloomberg report, Bitcoin spot ETFs are expected to receive approval from the US financial regulator as early as this week. BTC holders are awaiting the green light from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the securities product. The upcoming deadline is January 10th.

Bloomberg reports that insiders speculate that the regulator will use the January 10 deadline to announce its decision on multiple spot Bitcoin ETF applications at the same time. Nearly a dozen applicants awaiting the SEC's decision have provided seed capital and marketed their spot BTC ETF product.

Also read: New filings suggest Bitcoin spot ETF approval could come as early as Tuesday

Daily Digest Market Movers: The Bitcoin Spot ETF could get the green light as early as Wednesday

• Bitcoin spot ETFs could be approved if two technical requirements are met.
• The SEC has set a deadline of 8 a.m. ET (1 p.m. GMT) for issuers to file their amended S-1 forms on Monday. In order for a Bitcoin spot ETF to begin trading, the SEC requires: 19b-4 filings from exchanges and S-1 forms from issuers. The change to S-1 Forms and 19b-4s is in effect, according to the latest update on the SEC website.

S-1 filings updated by issuers. Source: SEC website

• In order to boost ETF trading, the regulator must give its approval just one day later.
• The SEC must approve the issuers' amended S-1 Forms, and possible approval is likely as early as Tuesday or Wednesday of this week.
• According to a Reuters report, a source stated that the SEC commissioner's vote is likely to take place on Wednesday, marking this week as crucial for Bitcoin holders and market participants.
• All 11 ETF issuers have amended their 19b-4 and S-1 and are awaiting approval to launch Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Application Status. Source: James Seyyfart's tweet on X.

• Monday through Wednesday of this week are important dates for issuers and market participants to pay attention to updates and changes to the SEC's decision on the new securities product.
• Bloomberg reports that the approval of the BTC ETF would mark a turning point for the digital asset industry with billions of dollars at stake.
• Both retail and institutional investors are expected to put their capital into the new securities product, and crypto experts such as Michael Anderson of crypto venture firm Framework Ventures believe the market is underestimating the potential impact of ETF approval.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin price could find its way back to $45,000

Bitcoin price is in an uptrend that started on September 11, 2023. BTC price has consistently formed higher highs and higher lows, with the exception of December 2023 where prices traded sideways below the $45,000 level for much of the month.

For Bitcoin holders, $45,000 is a psychologically important value because between $43,277 and $44,858, 2.29 million wallet addresses purchased 994,920 BTC worth about $43.57 billion (at a Average price of $43,802 as seen on IntoTheBlock).

Bitcoin Global in/out of the money. Source: IntoTheBlock

Between November 21st and 22nd, Bitcoin price plunged from a high of $69,158.74 to a low of $15,541.05. BTC price remained above the 50% Fib level ($42,349.89) of this January 2024 decline, and the largest cryptocurrency expects a rebound to $45,000.

Bitcoin price is currently above its two long-term exponential moving averages at 50 and 200 days at $41,337.99 and $34,211.52, respectively.

The next key resistance for Bitcoin price is the 61.8% level at $48,676.78.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

A daily candle close below the 50% Fib level at $42,349.89 could invalidate the bullish thesis for Bitcoin price. BTC could find support in its downtrend at $41,338.66, its 50-day EMA.

Frequently asked questions about crypto ETFs

An exchange traded fund (ETF) is an investment instrument or index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can track not just a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks the price of Bitcoin. ETF is a tool that allows investors to gain exposure to a specific asset.

Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still awaiting regulatory approval. The SEC says the cryptocurrency industry is new and vulnerable to manipulation, which is why it has delayed crypto-related futures ETFs in recent years.

The Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved outside the US, but the SEC has yet to approve one in the country. Interest in crypto ETFs has reignited after BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin spot ETF on June 15. Grayscale – whose application for a Bitcoin spot ETF was initially rejected by the SEC – won in court, forcing the US regulator to re-examine its proposal. The SEC's loss in this lawsuit has raised hopes that a Bitcoin spot ETF could be approved by the end of the year.

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