- Bitcoin’s 12-18 month UTXOs are not selling despite being close to breakeven.
- The average BTC holder was making gains and was more optimistic at press time.
Long-time owner of Bitcoin [BTC] show unwavering faith in the coin as BTC maintained its value above $27,000 at the start of the new month. This conclusion was a result of the new high of the realized cap.
To read Bitcoins [BTC] Price prediction 2023-2024
Support for BTC
On October 1, Glassnode announced that Bitcoin’s realized cap hit a 30-day high of $395.65 billion.
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📈 #Bitcoin $BTC Realized Cap just reached a 1-month high of $395,653,566,989.08
View metric:https://t.co/C8JhD26mC1 pic.twitter.com/HXiL7C6TfH
– Glassnode Alerts (@glassnodealerts) October 1, 2023
The realized cap provides a macroeconomic view of the BTC price. It does this by calculating the value of each unspent transaction output (UTXO) based on the price when the coin last moved.
To measure the value of a coin, increasing the realized cap means that the majority of recently moved Bitcoins were purchased at cheaper prices.
Additionally, the fact that the Bitcoin market cap is above the realized cap means that the market overall made gains despite some gains downturn in the last few months. The trust that comes from long term Holder was also confirmed by on-chain analyst Lidja Jahollari.
To do this, Jahollari compared the current price of Bitcoin with the realized price. The realized price is calculated as the realized cap divided by the total coin supply.
This value determined from the calculation can be interpreted as the average price that market participants paid for their coins. It can also act as a support price or on-chain resistance.
Source: CryptoQuant
The former is more positive than the latter
The analyst at the time published On CryptoQuant, the 12-18 month UTXO realized price of BTC was $26,950. She also added that the 6- to 12-month-old cohort cost $20,600.
Explaining both metrics, Jahollari noted that the 6-12 month age group saw much greater gains in terms of profitability as the former had almost broken even.
She wrote,
“The 12-18 month UTXO realized price indicates that holders have reached their average purchase price within this period. In contrast, the below-market realized 6-12 month UTXO price suggests the profitability of this cohort.”
Another metric the analyst took into account was the UTXO Age Bands exchange inflow. This metric summarizes the behavior of long-term and short-term holders along with price trends.
Source: CryptoQuant
From the above data, it can be seen that the 6-12 month UTXOs are actively taking profits through transfers to exchanges. However, the 12-18 month group decided not to sell despite a long period of unrealized losses.
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Due to this behavior, Jahollari mentioned that BTC at $26,950 may not serve as resistance to the real value. Instead, it had a tendency to be on the chain Support.
She concluded that
“Given the limited inflow of Bitcoin from the 12-18 month UTXO cohort into exchanges, indicating low selling pressure, this suggests that the realized price may not serve as a resistance level for Bitcoin price. This implies that Bitcoin has room to rise and potentially surpass this level.”
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