Bitcoin Halving Could Trigger a “Sell The News Event”: Here’s How the BTC Price Could React

The Bitcoin (BTC) halving is an event in which the reward for mining a BTC block is reduced by half every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years. With this event just under 70 blocks away, BTC price has recovered from its recent low below $60,000 on Wednesday and is aiming for a retest of the $65,000 level. Still, there could be a possible sell-off after the halving due to growing “sell the news” sentiment.

This is how the BTC price could react

Experts believe that there could be an immediate “buy the rumor, sell the news” impact on the Bitcoin price related to the halving event. Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research, believes it will take months for the impact of reduced BTC issuance to be felt and therefore does not expect a significant recovery either before or immediately after the halving.

This view is supported by analysts at Deutsche Bank, who point out that the market is probably already partially responsible for the Bitcoin halving. Due to the predictability of the Bitcoin algorithm, they do not expect a significant price increase following the event. Looking ahead, they expect Bitcoin prices to remain higher, influenced by expectations of future regulatory changes, possible central bank interest rate cuts, and spot Ethereum ETF approvals.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that large investors and exchange traded funds (ETFs) are buying less Bitcoin. This decline is likely due to concerns about the market and upcoming changes caused by the Bitcoin halving.

Analysts expect Bitcoin price to potentially fall to $62,000 after the halving due to short-term selling by miners. However, this decline could pique investor interest and lead to a subsequent price recovery.

Expert opinion on Bitcoin price

Binance CEO Richard Teng noted that Bitcoin has historically seen significant price increases in the six months following each halving. He added that Bitcoin has reached new all-time highs in the four-year intervals between previous halving events.

Whenever a Bitcoin halving is imminent, there is often debate about whether the impact is already factored into the price. Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin reached a new high of $73,836 just before the fourth halving on March 12. This led analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase to believe that the halving could be priced in as early as the start of the month.

Investment bank JPMorgan does not expect Bitcoin prices to rise after the halving, as it believes that this impact has already been factored into market prices. They also cited possible reasons for expecting a drop in Bitcoin prices after the halving.

Greg Beard, CEO of Stronghold Digital Mining, explained that while some base their predictions about rising Bitcoin prices on technical analysis, he focuses on the basic principles of supply and demand, which leads him to similarly promising conclusions.

Analysts say Bitcoin may be overbought, but John Glover, CIO at Ledn, urges patience regarding the impact of reduced supply on the market.

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