Bitcoin ETFs have a 75% chance of admission this year, according to Bloomberg analysts

Bloomberg analysts have increased the likelihood of an approved spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of 2023 after Grayscale’s recent win against the federal securities commission.

In an August 30 post on the decision in the current case.

“Judges unanimously rejected the SEC’s arguments, and the agency will struggle to justify further denials given deadlines,” added Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein in a separate Aug. 30 note.

NEW: @JSeyff and I are increasing our odds on 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this year (95% by the end of 2024). While we factored the Grayscale win into our previous 65% odds, the unanimity and determination of the decision exceeded all expectations, leaving the SEC “very little leeway” via @NYCStein pic.twitter.com/IyEGmWjuHa

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023

In his own post on

Balchunas added that a rejection by the SEC would be “politically untenable” given recent legal and PR losses.

Beyond the legal loss, there is also the PR loss (which is important because it shapes narratives and changes minds). And this has been widely reported in mainstream media including NYT, WSJ, CNN, `, ABC and so on. We anticipate that the combined legal and PR damage will result in the denial becoming politically untenable. pic.twitter.com/Uarh5CszXC

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023

Related: Grayscale Wins Court Case, But What Does It Mean for a Spot Bitcoin ETF?

In the next five days, seven bitcoin spot ETF applications will have to be decided by the SEC after “first deadline”, including Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree and Valkyrie.

Balchunas said he would not be “surprised” if the SEC delayed these forthcoming bitcoin spot ETF filings.

“But the most likely outcome will be that we wake up unexpectedly and the SEC will relent and approve bitcoin spot ETFs in one fell swoop,” he said.

Magazine: Hall of Flame: Wolf Of All Streets is concerned about a world where Bitcoin hits $1 million

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