According to the results of a survey published today, 47% of respondents believe that Bitcoin (BTC) will not reach a new ATH until 2025. This result reflects the extremely bearish sentiment among cryptocurrency market participants, which is further confirmed by data from Google Trends.
The survey was conducted on the profile of well-known cryptocurrency market analyst @TechDev_52. More than 400,000 people follow his Twitter account. A statistically valid sample of 7991 respondents took part in the survey. Therefore, its results can be expected to reflect the broad sentiment among crypto investors.
When asked “When will #Bitcoin do a new ATH?” There were 3 possible answers: 2023, 2025 and never. “2025” turned out to be the most frequently chosen answer, as it was given by as many as 47% of the respondents. The answer “2023” landed in second place with 38% of the votes. The last place was “never” with 15% of the votes.
The poll’s creator commented that the “majority does not expect new highs until at least 2025.” He then added that the “majority also expects 100,000+ in 2021.” Additionally, in a comment below the tweet, he noted that the recent response that BTC will never hit a new ATH received the highest number of responses he had ever seen.
Source: Twitter
“Bitcoin ATH” is dying in Google Trends
The extremely pessimistic mood of cryptocurrency market participants expressed in a Twitter poll is confirmed by data from Google Trends. If we look at the number of searches for the phrase “Bitcoin ATH” over the past 5 years, we see that its searches are near an all-time low.
The term “Bitcoin ATH” scored 1 on a 100 degree scale for the week of August 14-20, 2022. Searches for this term peaked at 100 for the week of October 17-23 2021, when Bitcoin surpassed the April 2021 ATH of $64,850. A month later, on November 10th, BTC hit $69,000 and started a decline that continues to this day.
Another argument for the negative sentiment and waning interest in the cryptocurrency sector is the search results for the term “crypto-ATH”. Recent results reflect the state of the crypto market even better than the phrase “Bitcoin ATH.”
Looking at the chart for the past 5 years, we see that 2021 has formed something of a double top, followed by a gradual drop in interest. This double top occurred first on the week of May 2-8, 2021 (value 95) and then on the week of October 17-23, 2021 (value 100).
Interestingly, the subsequent drop in searches for the phrase “crypto ATH” was much milder than the phrase “bitcoin ATH”. However, the end of that decline that we just saw last week leads to the first reading of 0 since November 2020. In other words, almost nobody cares about the term “crypto-ATH” today.
interpretation of the data
It is not easy to interpret the data unequivocally, which clearly points to the negative sentiment in the crypto industry. Cryptocurrency market participants do not believe that Bitcoin can reach new highs in the short to medium term. In addition, no one is looking for data on the possibility of achieving a new ATH.
On the one hand, this can indicate an extreme loss of confidence in a positive scenario for the near future. Without that confidence, like a self-fulfilling prophecy, the market will continue to fall.
On the other hand, both sets of data presented above can be a positive sign of an impending or already bottoming out. This is suggested by @TechDev_52 himself, who humbly admits that he was among the majority expecting BTC to pass $100,000 in 2021. Today, with the majority not believing in a new ATH by 2025, the market may wish to prove once again that the majority is always wrong.
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