Bitcoin (BTC) monthly MACD could soon give a bullish signal that preceded previous uptrends

Bitcoin (BTC) has resumed the climb that started on September 7th and created a major bullish candlestick on September 12th while hitting a key resistance area.

BTC has been up since hitting a low of $18,519 on September 7th. The bounce and continued upward movement served to confirm the $19,000 area as support. So far, bitcoin has peaked at $22,627.

During this bullish move, the daily RSI has also moved above 50 (green icon). This is a sign associated with bullish trends.

It is currently facing resistance at the 0.618 Fib retracement resistance level at $22,670. Despite struggling to surpass this level, Bitcoin has reclaimed the support line of the previous ascending parallel channel. This is a bullish sign that suggests that the previous breakdown is probably over.

Long-term bull market

Popular cryptocurrency trader @davthewave tweeted a chart of BTC showing the price floating in a long-term buy zone. Furthermore, the monthly histogram is about to produce a bullish contraction, although there is still time until the month’s close.

The monthly MACD-Histogram closes on September 30th. Even if there are 17 days left until the end, it is very likely that the histogram will shrink.

After significant sinking phases, this has only happened three times so far (green symbols):

• January 2015
• February 2019
• April 2020

Each of these periods was followed by a very significant upward move, resulting in either a new all-time high (2015 and 2020) or a five-fold increase in price (2019).

BTC wave count analysis

There are three main possibilities from the long-term wave number found when measuring the move down since the all-time high.

The first suggests that Bitcoin completed a five wave down move (white) in which wave five was truncated.

If correct, it would mean that the price has now started an ABC corrective structure that is likely to take it above $30,000.

After that, however, further downward movement towards new lows would follow. The bullish move would be confirmed with a surge above $25,200 (red line) highs from August 15th.

The second count is similar but implies that BTC instead completed an ABC correction structure (white) in which partial wave five (black) was clipped.

While the following move would be similar to the previous count, in this case the price would have started a new bullish reversal, meaning it would lead to new highs.

Similarly, the bullish move would be confirmed by a surge above $25,200.

Finally, the third potential count is in decline. It is similar to the first but suggests that Bitcoin is still in wave five (white). However, the count looks less likely due to the shape of the ongoing surge, which has been rapid.

A surge above $25,200 (red line) would invalidate this count, while a drop below $18,500 (green line) would confirm it.

To be[in]Crypto’s previous Bitcoin (BTC) analysis can be found here

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