Bitcoin [BTC] made its 2022 low on June 18 when it fell below $17,700. Since then, the number one cryptocurrency has been bouncing up and down the charts. However, BTC has only gone up more and has not reached such levels again as it has spent most of the time above $20,000.
Now, there could be another side to the BTC price action. According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Tomáš Hančar, BTC close to hit the bottom – he quoted that it’s almost a third.
How did this happen?
Based on Hančar’s analysis, the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) has spent three months at neutral levels.
Hančar continued by noting that the Long Term Holders (LTH) Earnings Win Rate within the 20-SMA showed that the bottom indicated a one-third reach. He mentioned that the situation would probably change by the 2018/2019 bear-bull market. Hancar said
“Technically speaking, the indicator’s 20-day MA smoothing line, between July 10th and 14th, we saw what appears to be a rebound from the actual 2020 LTH SOPR low, which coincidentally doesn’t go too far away from the 0.49 level represented the lows of both the 2015 and 2018/2019 cyclical lows”
While the analysis might suggest investors might start buying, Hančar stressed the need to be cautious. He noted that it is possible to see another drop below $20,000 before a guaranteed rise above it.
Who else agrees?
Formerly Glassnode recommended that the bear market wasn’t quite over yet. So, are other indicators consistent with Hančar’s projections?
According to the BTC chart, the current market was still neutral as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in blue and 50 EMA (yellow) were at almost the same level. With this trend, short-term traders may want to monitor where the next BTC is headed.
On the longer timeframe, the 200 EMA (cyan) showed signs of an uptrend and held a position just below the BTC price of $22,500. This position could mean that Hančar’s BTC price prediction could become a reality.
At press time, BTC was trading at 23,176 CoinMarketCap. With a 1.09% surge, buying more BTC could be risky as long-term investors’ penchant for wait-and-see could pay off.
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