- Benjamin Cowen expects the Bitcoin price to fall 21 percent in August, as it has seen in the years leading up to the halving in the past.
- Increased institutional demand for Bitcoin and its products like the ETF is expected to push the asset above $120,000 after next year’s halving.
Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to flex its muscles against the altcoin market and traditional financial instruments over the past two days despite a bearish outlook posted in July. According to the latest crypto price oracles, bitcoin dominance has increased by about 1 percent over the past five days, standing at 50.12 percent as of Wednesday. The sudden surge in bitcoin price coincided with a battered DeFi lending market curve financing and AAVE protocols were caught up in a liquidity crisis.
Notably, Curve Finance founder Michael Egorov raised a $60 million USDT loan through the AAVE protocol and issued 300 million CRV tokens as collateral. He now risks liquidation if the CRV price falls below 37 cents. However, the terrible news is that the CRV token has less than $4 million in liquidity across all DeFi protocols, even after Tron founder Justin Sun stepped in.
The poor state of organization of DeFi protocols leads crypto investors to believe that Bitcoin maximalists may be largely right after all. Still, the altcoin market offers more return opportunities due to its low valuation and higher speculative aspect.
Take a closer look at Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin price could fall as much as 21 percent by the end of this month, according to Benjamin Cowen, a reputable on-chain crypto analyst. Cowen argued that Bitcoin’s average return in August was about negative 21 percent in the years leading up to the halving. The argument was further solidified after bitcoin price closed last month down about 4 percent, similar to previous halving years.
As I mentioned earlier, #Bitcoin’s ROI in July of the pre-halving years was -4.74%.
The return of #BTC in July 2023 ended up being -4.09%.
FWIW, the average return of #BTC in August of the pre-halving years is -21.3%. https://t.co/L8mVlWFyiZ pic.twitter.com/jN58t1CU0S
>> Buy Bitcoin quickly and securely with PayPal, credit card or bank transfer on eToro. Visit the website
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 1, 2023
The belief that Bitcoin will surge above $32,000 in the coming weeks has seen its open interest surge significantly to around $15 billion. However, Cowen argues that in the years leading up to the halving, Bitcoin was doomed throughout August. Nonetheless, the analyst remains bullish on the Bitcoin price in the long-term, forecasting a new ATH halving next year.
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A similar market outlook was provided by analysts at Standard Chartered Bank highlighted Bitcoin could hit $50,000 by the end of this year and trade above $120,000 by the end of next year.
Additionally, whale traders, led by MicroStrategy, have continued to add more coins over the past year despite market uncertainty.
Crypto experts anticipate that bitcoin weakness could continue in the coming weeks until the price re-tests an ascending macro trend line as trading below $30,000 in July. However, the trade setup could be invalidated if BTC price remains bearish towards $25,000. Furthermore, bitcoin price action is still under the influence of a death cross between the 50 and 200 moving averages.
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