Key Findings:
- Bitcoin adoption appears to be increasing.
- Global adoption could rise to 10% by 2030.
- Increasing adoption coupled with market maturity could support long-term growth in bitcoin price.
Despite the recent market crash and largely bearish narrative surrounding cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), the crypto adoption narrative has held up well for most of this quarter.
Bitcoin (BTC) adoption could outpace the adoption of previous disruptive technologies like automobiles and electric power, according to a new report published Wednesday.
Bitcoin adoption could skyrocket
The report, published by Blockware Intelligence, highlighted that global Bitcoin adoption could most likely reach 10% by 2030.
The company arrived at this prediction by examining historical adoption curves for the nine most recent disruptive technologies – automobiles, electric power, smartphones, the internet and social media – and the growth rate of bitcoin adoption since 2009.
The report said:
“All disruptive technologies follow a similar exponential S-curve pattern, but […] Newer network-based technologies continue to be adopted much faster than the market expects.”
Using the average and weighted average of historical technology adoption curves as well as the growth rate of bitcoin adoption, the report made an optimistic prediction of bitcoin’s adoption rate.
In addition, the report highlighted
“To project the growth period from the current level of adoption to 10% adoption, we used a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of cum sum company net growth and excluded outlier values.”
In particular, the adoption forecast of up to 10% is predicted using the CAGR of the net corporate growth metric. On the other hand, the acceptance forecast above 10% is forecast using the average/weighted average of the past acceptance curves.
Using the cumulative sum of companies’ net growth and their 60% CAGR, the report predicted that global bitcoin adoption would surge over 10% in 2030. The red line in the chart below represents actual bitcoin adoption and the green lines represent forecast bitcoin adoption.
Source: Blockware Solutions
However, a recent FXEmpire article pointed out that cryptocurrency payments are still on the list of US customers as retailers try to spur growth in the sector. However, the key question remains whether BTC adoption would drive price growth.
Can adoption raise the price?
As more people get on board the bitcoin train and adoption of the technology increases, its value is bound to increase. While it is widely believed that increased adoption also drives price increases, this cannot be used as a scientific tool for short-term trading.
Instead, it’s important to remember a quote from British statistician George Box – “all models are wrong, but some models are useful.” Similar to other predictive models, the report published by Blockware also serves as a conceptual guide for long-term Bitcoin investors.
At press time, BTC is trading at $29,079 and is down 3.81% over the last day. BTC’s struggle with the $30,000 price range has been ongoing since May 10th.
BTC Daily Price | Source: FXEmpire
Interestingly, FXEmpire previously reported how macro indicators like the MVRV ratio presented a strengthening narrative of BTC as digital gold.
Last year, blockchain data platform Chainalysis revealed that global BTC and cryptocurrency adoption surged 881% from July 2020 to June 2021. Notably, Vietnam had the highest cryptocurrency adoption at the time, followed by India and Pakistan.
So, as BTC gains acceptance, the price can see decent long-term growth as well.
Learn Crypto Trading, Yield Farms, Income strategies and more at CrytoAnswers
https://nov.link/cryptoanswers
Comments are closed.