- Grayscale’s total cumulative GBTC outflows were $14.15 million
- Coinbase analyst sees GBTC sale linked to Gemini as “net neutral.”
The new US spot Bitcoin [BTC] ETFs experienced net outflows throughout last week. Grayscale's GBTC led the outflows, which totaled $2.1 billion.
As the first quarter of 2024 slowly comes to a close, there has been renewed bullish interest over the past 48 hours. In fact, spot ETFs made a net profit of $15.4 million on March 25th. Nevertheless, GBTC outflows unfortunately continued into the new week and reached $350.1 million.
Needless to say, these drains raised many concerns throughout the community. Coinbase analyst David Duong was quick to comment on whether or not GBTC outflows are having an impact on Bitcoin price action.
GBTC’s BTC outflow continues
In a recent interview, Duong said quoted the possibility of the bankrupt Gemini repaying its customers BTC from its GBTC stake.
“The majority stake held by Gemini will be paid out in Bitcoin. And if so, that means they are selling GBTC and buying Bitcoin.”
The ongoing GBTC outflows are believed to be related to Gemini liquidations. Therefore, Duong believes the current GBTC outflows are counterintuitive;
“So that means the power itself should be net neutral.”
According to Arkham Intelligence, the ongoing GBTC outflows have so far reduced Grayscale's holdings from 624.28k BTC to 357.05k BTC Data. That represents a 42.8% decline since the fund converted to an ETF in January.
Erick Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, also presented various theories for GBTC outflows. In one of them he stated:
“You probably underestimated how competitive the US ETF market is.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was on track to break out of last week's range and was trading above $70,000. Regarding the prevailing price trend, Duong added:
“We’re really in a new territory of pricing because we don’t know what the behavior is going to be.”
He continued:
“I think we will continue to see an upward trend.”
However, Duong’s “net neutral” thesis of GBTC sales can only be confirmed if Gemini customers receive a refund in BTC. Meanwhile, GBTC outflows could increase as the halving looms.
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