According to a new BTC price model, Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to test Hodler with a “mid-cycle lull” before embarking on a bull run in late 2024.
According to its creator, popular analyst CryptoCon, the “November 28 Cycle Theory” posits that BTC price will hit an all-time high in 2025.
Countdown to BTC Price “Bull Run Launch”
Amid the debate over the nature of the current four-year Bitcoin price cycle, CryptoCon believes that everything might be simpler than many think when it comes to how BTC/USD is doing at any given point in time.
Unveiling the November 28 chart on X (formerly Twitter), he described the date as a major turning point of the year, along with a three-week period on both sides.
“Using 4-year time cycles contrary to my theory leads to an accurate behavior of bitcoin in time since its inception. “Cycles are centered on the date of the first halving, November 28th,” he explained.
“Bitcoin price action started from the first bottom on October 8th, 2010. This is where the cycle curves peak every four years. Highs and lows come +/- 21 days from November 28th at the corresponding times on the chart. Highs on the upswing, lows on the high.”
The chart describes November 28 as the day when Bitcoin experiences a “bull run” every four years. The last time was in 2020 when BTC/USD broke its previous all-time high (ATH) and hit its current record of $69,000 a year later.
The next point of interest is therefore November 2024. Until then, BTC price action will spend its time in a “mid-cycle lull”.
“After Bitcoin bottoms, the price makes an early first-cycle move (orange) and enters a mid-cycle doldrums,” CryptoCon continued.
“This is the longest part of the cycle Bitcoin spends time around the median price (half of the previous ATH) until the curve bottoms.”Bitcoin theory chart as of November 28th. Source: CryptoCon/X
He added that Bitcoin has “almost certainly” reached its early top, citing local highs of $31,800 from July of this year.
A Bitcoin “Bull Market Fakeout”
As Cointelegraph reported, opinions are divided on how BTC price action will feed into the 2024 block subsidy halving.
Related: Bitcoin Halving May Take BTC Price to $148,000 by July 2025 – Pantera Capital
Some argue that Hodler will only see modest gains ahead of the event, which is slated for April next year.
In an interview with Cointelegraph this week, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, nonetheless stated a halving target of $46,000, with $35,000 planned for year-end.
In its latest newsletter, published on September 5th, CryptoCon summed up BTC price behavior in 2023 as a “bull market fakeout.”
“This gives the impression that the bull market started by triggering many signals, but at some point the price does not last,” he wrote.
“This is the most compelling example we’ve seen of it to date. Personally I think there is still some time left for this and I am patiently waiting for the completion.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, BTC/USD was trading at $26,200 at the time of writing on September 8th.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading venture involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making their decision.
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