Big move coming for bitcoin? Price Consolidation Near Crucial Level: BTC Price Analysis
Bitcoin price has been relatively inactive for the past few weeks and it is struggling to clear the $30,000 resistance level. The current phase appears to be corrective, characterized by minor rejections, with clear support found at the 100-day ma.
Technical Analysis
From Shayan
The daily chart
The daily chart is showing a corrective move since the $30,000 rejection, with a gradual pullback towards the 100-day moving average at $28.5,000. This moving average served as solid support and prevented further declines for several months.
However, a break below the 100-day moving average could indicate that sellers are focusing on the 200-day moving average and the lower border of the multi-month channel. The 200-day MA is of significant importance as it could serve as support and push the price higher.
However, if BTC finds support at the 100- or 200-day MAs and ultimately manages to reclaim the $30,000 level, it could trigger a rally towards the $38,000 resistance zone in the coming weeks.
Source: TradingView
The 4 hour chart
On the 4 hour chart, the price appears to be floating in a static area, oscillating between the $30,000 and $25,000 resistance and support levels. The ongoing corrective phase started in early July when the price approached the critical 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. This region serves as a key support and could be the target of the current correction.
A supportive reaction in this area could lead to a new bullish phase and price surge. However, if the cryptocurrency breaks below the area between 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels, it could quickly drop towards its lower line, around $25,000.
Source: TradingView
On-Chain Analysis
From Shayan
This chart shows the bitcoin supply that has been dormant for over a year. It is fascinating to see that around 69.2% of all BTC has not been transferred for more than a year. This shows that despite its volatile nature, many holders have strong beliefs in its long-term value.
If we take a closer look, about 55.7% of Bitcoin has remained untouched for over two years, indicating a strong “HODLing” strategy among these participants. This trend continues, with approximately 40.1% of bitcoins remaining dormant for more than three years, showing an unwavering belief in bitcoin’s potential.
Finally, those who have kept their bitcoins for more than five years make up around 29.1% of the total supply, showing their long-term commitment to bitcoin. This “HODLing” strategy affects the price of Bitcoin significantly. When a large portion of bitcoin remains dormant, the available supply in the market decreases. This, along with increasing demand, can push up the price over the long term due to scarcity.
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