For the past few weeks, Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating within a tight range after falling below the 50-day moving average. The market is currently caught between two notable levels, leaving room for several potential scenarios to unfold.
Technical Analysis
From: Edris
The daily chart:
The price on the daily time frame has not yet shown any significant upward or downward movement. If there is a rally in the coming weeks, the first resistance to watch is the 50-day moving average around $28,000, followed by the crucial $30,000 level.
On the other hand, for holders, the key areas of support to rely on are the $25,000 level and the 200-day moving average of around $23,000. The RSI indicator remains below the 50% level without much movement, which points to the current bearish momentum and increases the probability of a short-term downside movement.
Source: TradingView
The 4 hour chart:
On the 4-hour chart, the price remains within a clear descending channel. Although there has been a recent bullish push triggered by the minor support at $26,000, there is still a strong possibility of a pullback towards the bottom of the channel and the $25,000 support area.
Conversely, for a recovery, the market must first break the resistance level at $27,500. In this case, the probability of a breakout of the channel and subsequent retest of the $30,000 resistance area would increase.
Source: TradingView
On-Chain Analysis
From: Edris
Bitcoin Miner Reserve
While Bitcoin’s price is relatively flat, examining on-chain metrics can help us understand the underlying dynamics.
The chart below focuses on the Bitcoin Miner Reserve metric, which quantifies the amount of BTC held by miners, a significant group within the ecosystem.
The data clearly illustrates a continuous decline in this metric over the past 9 months, suggesting that miners have been selling their coins to cover operating costs or to mitigate risk in an uncertain macroeconomic climate.
This drop has intensified, suggesting that miners are taking advantage of the recent price surge to sell their coins at a higher price. If this trend continues, a bearish trend reversal is likely to occur in the near future. Continued selling pressure from miners could result in an oversupply of bitcoins in the market, leading to a potential downside in the price.
Source: CryptoQuant
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