Bud’s Bets is my column on college football gambling.
I’ve had a strong couple of years including 55 percent from the 2019 spread with a 5.1 percent ROI. I had a bad 2020 with my pre-game bets but made a profit with second half and live bets. Be sure to follow the Title 3 podcast for more breakdown of the picks.
My strategy was pretty simple: create my own numbers using a combination of public and private performance metrics, as well as my own manual adjustments based on staff, injuries, and matchup knowledge.
With my numbers set, the next step is to be ready to fire on Sunday when the numbers are released on Sunday or Monday. It is usually beneficial to bet before the pros who want to bet tens of thousands per game because I get in before the huge money comes in and moves the line. The lines tend to be sharper later in the week and most of my bets are placed early in the week.
If you’re trying to wager thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (usually $ 250-1000 max wagers per game) early in the week can be an obstacle, but I guess the majority of my readership is playing $ 100 per game or less.
William Hill Sports book is a reliable place to find odds.
Questions and live betting
I’ll be answering any questions about gambling in the comments section throughout the week. Fire away. I will be talking about games in the Bud’s Bets comments section every week. I also post my live bets and halftime bets in the discussion area.
Total: $ 2,612, 39% ROI
ATS before the game: 24-7 (77%), $ 1640, 68% ROI
Non-spread: 1-0, $ 100, 48% ROI
In Game / Live: 17-9, $ 872, 29% ROI
Tips met in the futures markets from my early bets / week 0 column.
–Utah -6.5 at BYU. “BYU lost more production than any other team in the nation, including QB Zach Wilson. But it played a simple schedule even in 2020, which may have turned into a slightly inflated record. I rated Utah significantly higher than BYU on a neutral field and believe that Utah is favored by more than one touchdown at kick-off. “
-Oregon at Ohio State -9. “ I’m a big fan of Oregon, but the Ducks have high school questions early in the season, and Ohio State has the best reception corps in the country, in my opinion. I believe this line should be more than two touchdowns and I expect it to continue rising. “
Picks originally posted on Twitter on Sunday.
–Pitt -2 in Tennessee. I think Pitt should be favored by about six or seven here, so anything under a field goal is absolutely a bit.
–Iowa +4 in the state of Iowa. I’ll pick Iowa to win the game completely.
–Texas -3.5 in Arkansas. Texas showed some explosive game skills and some physicality in defense against a solid ULL team. I like them under a touchdown.
-Washington at Michigan -1. I don’t think Michigan is that good, but Washington looked terrible when it lost to Montana and its offensive is a wreck.
–UTEP +27 in the state of Boise. This is a bit of a disappointment for Boise State. I believe UTEP will be able to run football.
–NC state PK in the state of Mississippi. I’ve been to NC State all year including preseason and week 1. I’m back here on less than one touchdown.
-Freedom at Troy +6. Troy is an improved football team and I think they can win the game completely.
–Temple -6.5 at Akron. Separating terrible teams from bad teams is an important part of gambling, especially at the start of the season. Akron could be the worst team in the country, while Temple is just bad by my numbers.
–UNLV +35 (-105) in the state of Arizona. UNLV lost to Eastern Washington in Week 1, but I’m doing this number 31. Hold your nose and take the 35.
-Boston College at UMass +38. UMass is a bad team. Boston College is pretty good. But I am making this number 32 so this is too much worth to pass up.
New in the column.
–Missouri +5.5 (-102) in Kentucky. I think Missouri can throw the ball at Kentucky well and be competitive.
-Pitt in Tennessee Over 53. Tennessee is playing at such an extreme pace that it should be in the 1960s.
-UTEP around Boise State -26 (-105). Playing from the UTEP position on the news that RB Hankins is out for the miners.
-Kentucky, Missouri About 54.5. I think both teams will throw better than last year.
There’s more to come.