Bitcoin (BTC / USD) continues to slide back during the session to $ 31,409 (at the time of writing). As we have published several times, we assume that the selling pressure in the BTC market will continue. We don’t expect sales to subside as we expect Bitcoin to decline by as much as 80% to 90% based on historical price patterns. This implies that Bitcoin is likely to find support in the $ 6,000-12,000 price range based on historical price patterns.
While much of the mainstream cryptocurrency news will continue to make headline after headline that the market is collapsing. We have been quite conspicuous in our timing on this matter, repeatedly telling bitcoin investors that the time has been a few months for a payout prior to a reversal in the alt-coin market.
Even so, we get a little nervous after declaring that Bitcoin would trade in a price range of $ 30,000 to $ 40,000. It’s been a couple of months and Bitcoin managed to trade within that range, with the markets now testing the lower end of the price range.
Figure 1. Bitcoin price chart
The lack of significant positive news and the constant dissolution of various positions with questionable data on open interest in the futures markets also raises further question marks. Various market experts jump on the bear train as they forecast when and not “if” Bitcoin will eventually retest lower levels like $ 20,000, a number referenced by Mati Greenspan at Quantum Economics.
Regardless, we believe the bottom is even below $ 20,000 with $ 20,000 likely to be a temporary support area until we hit historically more accurate retracement levels. But before we even test the $ 20,000 mark, we believe market participants are embracing the lower channel. That is, if buyer support breaks here and the bears continue to test the lower support of $ 30,000, it is only a matter of time before the lower support breaks. At the very least, most technical traders would agree that continually testing the lower levels after falling -50% from ATH (all time highs) is preparing us to surrender.
Therefore, we are very skeptical of the recent price actions of Bitcoin, although we are constructive in the long term on various internal measures, such as the rapid growth of Bitcoin Lightning network transactions, the facilitation of the Bitcoin introduction, the introduction of alternative financial products (ETFs). , Bitcoin wallet / user growth.
We believe that investors in Bitcoin can count on the continuous logarithmic halving over the long term as user adoption trends and the speed of transaction processing increase. This suggests that Bitcoin could easily be worth more than $ 100,000 per coin at some point in the next 10 years, as both stores of value will be exacerbated by the available scarcity and yet the acceptance or use of Bitcoin for transactions will increase due to the Bitcoin lightning network .
All of these things are likely to happen and so given the historical retracement / volatility we sound very negative in the short term. We’re not fully pricing Bitcoin, we just know that most speculators don’t have the pain tolerance to HODL from a cryptocurrency market crash, which is why we told our readers that things are likely to get worse before they get much better.
Disclosure: Cho Research has not been compensated by any cryptocurrency foundation linked in the article titled “Bitcoin Will Break Below 30,000 This Month,” although Cho Research is using the research funds it has
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