Scottish football has many attractive qualities – being predictably unpredictable is just one of them.
With the last five games now played before each of the 12 teams in the Scottish Premiership, fans will already be comparing run-ins, consulting calendars and considering permutations to see who the winners and losers will be next May.
But while fans will follow their hunches, ` Scotland has reached out to sports analysis expert Nielsen Gracenote to try and predict what will unfold in five gripping game maps.
Here goes…
title race? Which title race?
Rangers haven’t had much better in weeks.
A Scottish Cup final spot has been booked thanks to an Old Firm victory, and that’s before they celebrate reaching the Europa League semi-finals.
But rivals Celtic have a 94% chance of regaining the Scottish Premiership title, according to figures from Gracenote’s head of analysis, Simon Gleave.
The company Euro Club Index Rangers have ranked Scotland’s highest club ahead of Ange Postecoglou’s men on the back of their European triumphs, but statistical analysis shows the domestic tide has turned after the New Year.
The Ibrox side had a 75% chance of retaining their crown until a 3-3 draw with Ross County in January and a 3-0 loss to Parkhead changed the momentum.
With 15 points to play and six points behind – and a sizeable goal difference – can Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s side weather the odds?
Despair?
Dundee boss Mark McGhee could turn off his radiators to save his side’s season – or maybe he just wants to cut his gas bill? – but the club could be cold as early as the Premiership, according to Nielsen Gracenote.
The Dens side are five points behind St Johnstone, Saturday’s opponents, and have a 93% chance of staying there until the end of the season.
Callum Davidson’s Saints, meanwhile, have a 7% chance of last place and a 79% chance of a relegation playoff spot.
That will give some reassurance to Aberdeen and St Mirren supporters, whose sides have stuttered to an anti-climactic under-six final score. The former has a 3% chance of moving into this playoff, while Stephen Robinson’s Buddies has a slim 9%.
Aberdeen will just try to finish this season without incident. Having started the season as the fourth-highest-ranked Scottish club in the Euro Club Index, they have now fallen 98 places to 324 on the continent.
On song for Europe?
Five games, three clubs, two European Cup places.
Dundee United, currently a point ahead of Ross County and Motherwell, are unsurprisingly the favorites to have a place in Europa Conference League qualifiers anywhere this summer.
The Tam Courts side, which are up 40 on the Euro Club Index to number 367, have a 48% chance of finishing fourth, a 32% bias to fifth and just a 20% chance of being at home in the to stay garden.
County’s numbers are 29%, 37%, and 34%, respectively, while Graham Alexander’s team’s odds are slightly lower at 22%, 32%, and 46%.
Fir Park’s side have won just one league game since December 26 while they travel against their two European rivals. Could that get expensive?
And what about everyone else…?
Must be great to be a Hearts fan. In the Scottish Cup final, guaranteed third in the league, as well as a kind of European football at Christmas. scenes.
So it’s no wonder they rose 100 places in the Euro Club Index to 271, their highest ranking in 10 years.
Edinburgh managerless rivals Hibernian are now 30 places behind the Gorgie Club despite starting the season 119 clear of a stormy season. A 43% chance of finishing seventh is the glimmer of light that Hibs fans squint to see.
Livingston, who was pushed into the top six in the final seconds by Motherwell two weeks ago, has a 28% chance of finishing seventh or eighth while slipping into relegation play-off territory is 2%. phew
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