Danny Murphy joins Gary Lineker, Alan Shearer and Micah Richards for Manchester City v Liverpool in the FA Cup semi-final, live from Wembley Stadium. Coverage begins at 3pm BST on ` One on Saturday. Kick-off is at 3:30 p.m.
It’s been 753 minutes since Mohamed Salah’s last goal in open play for Liverpool but there’s absolutely no chance I’d miss it in Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final against Manchester City.
Penalties aside, Salah hasn’t found the net in any of his last 38 goal attempts in the past two months but he needs to start at Wembley because he’s a match winner and has earned the right to play in big games like this one, even if he has a bad run.
Mohamed Salah’s last free-play goal came in the 67th minute against Norwich on 19 February. He has since scored three penalties but this is his longest streak of appearances without scoring an Open Play goal for Liverpool (10) as well as the longest in terms of minutes. His longest to date has been nine performances between July and October 2020
I agree he hasn’t played as well as he could, but let’s not forget that since joining Liverpool in 2017, the 29-year-old Egyptian has set standards with his goalscoring past anything we’ve seen thought possible.
We’re judging him on his own ridiculous record and the fact that his stats are more ordinary over the last two months doesn’t change the fact that he’s capable of scoring remarkable goals that no one else on the pitch can, whoever the opponent is.
That alone is reason enough to pick him, but beyond that, you have to consider the effect his mere presence will have on City.
Regardless of whether Joao Cancelo, Nathan Ake or Oleksandr Zinchenko are playing at left-back for City this weekend, they would fear Salah at any time.
They all love to get up front themselves, but know that doing so will see them surpassing the Premier League’s top scorer. It’s a very different dynamic than anyone else they might face in Liverpool’s side.
Although Salah didn’t score at Etihad Stadium on Sunday, he still made a huge impact on the game, not least with his perfect pass to Sadio Mane to make it 2-2 early in the second half.
I’m expecting more of that this time and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Salah actually scored the winner because he’s done it so many times before.
Salah has scored 153 goals in 243 games for Liverpool and twice won the Golden Boot – or part of it – as the Premier League’s top scorer
Liverpool also need their experienced liaison
It’s not just Salah whose place is in doubt. Jurgen Klopp has some big decisions to make about who gets in his front three due to the competition for places first Diogo Jota and now Luis Diaz brought to their attack.
Jota got the nod over Roberto Firmino to start against City last weekend. But I think what happened in that game means maybe we’ll see more of Firmino this time around.
Like Diaz, Jota has been a wonderful purchase but neither of them can do the job Firmino does for the team, holding the ball and getting it onto the field.
Firmino has scored 98 goals in 322 games for Liverpool, compared to Jota’s 34 in 73 – but the Brazilian is better known for his work outside the box
Jota, of course, scored his goal against City, but he also gave up possession on a couple of occasions as he dived into deeper areas to try and tie the game.
Firmino is by far their best player at it and there were a few times on Sunday when it was very obvious he wasn’t there, in the pockets he normally operates in.
It meant Liverpool lost the ball and you can’t do that against a team as good as City and expect to get away with it.
There are pros and cons to whoever you choose. Jota is obviously much more of a scoring threat – Firmino’s goalscoring record isn’t nearly as good – but if you go there with his strength you’re missing out on what Firmino gives you outside the box and vice versa.
Given the likely trajectory of the game and the importance of competing with City down the middle of the pitch, I think Firmino’s reliability in linking Liverpool’s game will see him win the bid.
Subs will also play a big part
Salah and Mane both started Wednesday’s Champions League home game against Benfica on the bench, only coming on for the final half-hour on a night the Reds were always comfortably ahead overall.
In contrast, City had to travel to Madrid for a really intense encounter with Atlético, where they were tested and pushed to the limit until the end.
We knew Atletico Madrid would be aggressive – Pep Guardiola
The fact that Liverpool have been able to rest and rotate their squad more than City did midweek might only make a small difference in how things go this weekend, but it will be a factor. The pace will certainly not be any less intense than on Sunday and the players will tire as the game progresses.
That doesn’t mean you’re writing City off because we know how much quality they have in their squad and the consistency they’ve shown with their high performances over a period of several years.
I also think talk of fatigue can sometimes be overstated because as a player at this stage of the season, whether for Liverpool or City, you’re playing for your place in the next game. You don’t want to rest; They want to play as much as possible.
Still, when sides are as well and closely matched as these two are, you look for any area to have an advantage – and Liverpool, fresher still, are likely to make them slight favorites this time around.
Man City vs Liverpool was on ‘another level’ – Klopp
However, how they use their substitutes will be crucial for both teams, not even from a tactical point of view, but from a physical point of view.
The decisions will be: when do you change things, who do you change and how do they affect the game?
Whichever manager gets it right – whether it’s Jurgen Klopp or Pep Guardiola – is likely to win the game because I’d be amazed if a substitute didn’t heavily influence the outcome of this semi-final.
Danny Murphy spoke to ` Sport’s Chris Bevan.
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