Chiefs-Bills divisional round odds, tips, how to watch: Expert picks, best bets for AFC playoff showdown

Only five teams remain in the NFL playoffs after the Baltimore Ravens beat the Houston Texans on Saturday and the San Francisco 49ers beat the Green Bay Packers, and then the Detroit Lions beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the early game on Sunday. Now there's just one divisional round game left, and it's great: Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs face Josh Allen and the Bills in Buffalo.

Like every week, we've collected the best tips and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place so you can get tips against the spreads from our CBS Sports experts, as well as additional feature content, including games from top SportsLine- Experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survival tips and more. Ready? Let's get in.

All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus Odds.

What picks can you confidently make in the divisional round? And which Super Bowl contender will be eliminated? Visit SportsLine, whose incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and has returned well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.

Bosses at Bills

Time: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS), streaming on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Bills -2.5, O/U 46

“Letting the Chiefs die out as underdogs in the playoffs doesn’t feel great! But this isn't so much about Kansas City as it is about Buffalo, and it's YOUR TIME, so to speak. Gabe Davis, Taylor Rapp, Christian Benford and Baylon.” Spector was completely ruled out on Friday, so we could see the money line shrink a bit further in the Chiefs' favor. I think this is an incredible game between the AFC's two best teams of the last five years, the third installment of an intense playoff battle between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. I'm not saying the Bills are “due” or anything, but this time they get Mahomes on their own turf and this defense played significantly better. I guess I'm a little worried I feel like they *need* to win this game, but Buffalo has been in playoff mode for over a month now. They get the job done in a close, epic game (on CBS and streaming on Paramount+).” – Will Brinson, host of the Pick Six Podcast, explains why he's using the Bills to beat the Chiefs. To see his other divisional round best bets, Click here.

SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein is the go-to source when it comes to betting on Chiefs games. He's 31-20 (+875) in his last 51 against the spread picks in games involving Kansas City, so anyone who's been tracking him was way up there. As for this game against Buffalo, Hartstein is leaning toward underscoring but has a clear opinion on the distribution, which you can find on SportsLine.

“I said before the playoffs started that people were sleeping on the Chiefs, and I won't shy away from that when they travel to Buffalo to face the Bills. Andy Reid's team is getting great play from its defense, which is effectively shutting down the Chiefs' high-flying Dolphins outside of a lone deep touchdown to Tyreek Hill in the first half. Offensively, Patrick Mahomes continues to be smart with the football, they get an outstanding rushing attack from Isiah Pacheco, and the emergence of Rashee Rice could be the biggest X-factor of the playoffs in the AFC. They continue to do things that are conducive to playoff success, but aren't exactly viewed with the same horror as previous Chiefs teams, which I think is a mistake. Buffalo played well downfield but the Bills also kept their teams waiting a bit. Even though they beat the Steelers by double digits, it was a one-possession game early in the fourth quarter. Of course, Mason Rudolph couldn't quite lead Pittsburgh to a win. In this situation, Mahomes is a completely different animal, even if he's playing on the road for the first time in his playoff career. The problems Buffalo had in the kicking game last week – a blocked field goal and a missed 27-yarder by Tyler Bass – are also on my radar. I think KC gets a close win and advances to the AFC Championship.” – CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan explains why he's pulling an upset for the Chiefs in Buffalo. To read his other tips, Click here.

“The crazy thing about these two teams is that the Bills actually beat the Chiefs pretty regularly, but no one remembers those wins because they always happen in the regular season. The Bills have won three straight regular season games against Kansas City, but they have lost two straight playoff games to the Chiefs.

“So will this finally be the year they hit rock bottom? Since the 13-second game, the Bills appear to have built their roster with one goal in mind: beating the Chiefs. Everything the Chiefs do well.”, the Bills are designed to neutralize it. When it comes to stopping the pass, the Chiefs' defense has given up the fourth-fewest yards in the NFL this year, and a big reason for that is that they have racked up 57 sacks, which is the second-highest total in the league. The problem for Kansas City is that Josh Allen is good at avoiding sacks, he can run when he needs to, and he thrives when forced to go off script.

“…Another level of drama is that this will be the first true ROAD game of Mahomes' career.

The last five meetings between these two teams have been in Kansas City, but this one is in Buffalo and I think that will make the difference. In a city where fans jump from snowdrifts onto burning tables, they could set the entire stadium on fire if the Bills win. Please don't set your stadium on fire, Bills fans, because you might need it to host the AFC Championship, at least if my Texans-Ravens prediction also turns out to be true.” – CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech explains, why The Bills will defeat the Chiefs to advance to the AFC Championship. To see his other picks, Click here.