Jaden Ivey #23 of the Purdue Boilermakers looks on before the game against the St. Peter’s Peacocks in the Sweet Sixteen round game of the 2022 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at the Wells Fargo Center on March 25, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images via AFP.
The Orlando Magic have the first overall pick, and Jabari Smith Jr. appears to be the consensus pick. However, is there value in other draft positions in the futures markets? This article examines the 2022 NBA draft from a betting perspective to see where the value lies.
As the 2022 NBA Finals unfolds, the importance of drafting and developing native talent will be fully appreciated. Both teams drafted their core players, with the Golden State Warriors selecting Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Jordan Poole. The Boston Celtics did the same with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Grant Williams and Robert Williams.
With the NBA draft on June 23 approaching, we have a bet with potential value as teams like the Orlando Magic and Oklahoma City Thunder look to bolster their young core.
First overall selection
I am confident that the Magic Auburns will select Jabari Smith Jr. with the first overall pick and this will impact my betting strategy in other markets.
The Magic have cap space and I expect they’ll steal center Deandre Ayton from the Phoenix Suns with a maximum contract, a contract the Suns have already shown they are not ready to achieve.
Ayton and the Magic would be a perfect match because Ayton wants to be the face of a franchise and be rewarded accordingly. Predicting Ayton’s potential move to Magic is significant because it explains why I don’t think Magic Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren will be called up.
Signing Ayton and drafting Smith would completely change the future of Magic. Holmgren’s call-up and subsequent inability to sign Ayton, who plays the same position, would set them back several years.
Second overall pick: Jaden Ivey (+4000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
With the Magic tied to Smith with first pick, the markets defaulted Holmgren as the favorite for second pick at -320.
I do not share this opinion regarding Holmgren. With a +4000 available on Ivey, I’ll bet against it. The NBA has evolved into a guard game, and Thunder’s front office is smart enough to recognize that with the Purdue guard at their disposal.
Purdue’s Jaden Ivey demonstrated his powerful first step, explosiveness and clean shot at yesterday’s CAA Pro Day to a packed house of NBA decision makers. pic.twitter.com/pRtTD8CExL
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) May 28, 2022
This wouldn’t be the first time Sam Presti chose an athletic draft keeper over the big man everyone expected of him. Presti drafted Russell Westbrook in 2008 with the 4th overall in place of his UCLA teammate Kevin Love. It may not seem so drastic now, but at the time Westbrook was a third-team All-Pac-10 selection and Love was considered the NBA’s next big man.
The key to betting is price as I don’t think Ivey should be +4000 in this market. The odds of him being second pick overall instead of Holmgren are much higher than the +4000 odds imply.
Where to bet on the 2022 NBA Draft
Here are ours Top Rated Sportsbook:
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Jon Metler is a sports betting analyst at SportsbookReview.com. He has been in sports betting for over 12 years and specializes in futures markets. He keeps a close eye on futures market movements across a variety of sports in search of value. He is a firm believer in analytics and always being one step ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. Jon covers futures markets in the MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAF, NCAAB, PGA Tour and LPGA. A lifelong Detroit Tigers fan, he still has nightmares of Torii Hunter knocking over the Boston Red Sox’s bullpen. After redeeming consecutive LPGA Money List futures tickets priced up to +8000 in 2020, Jon serves as the President of the Jin Young Ko Fan Club. Jon has a bachelor’s degree in Physical Education from the University of Windsor. You can find him watching games, listening to sports, or looking for his golf ball in the woods.
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