What happened if?
On Monday, the LA Clippers beat the Boston Celtics, the team with the best record in the NBA, by 20 points. In that game, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined a whopping 51 points (18 field goals to 34, free throws 11 to 15), 15 rebounds, 9 assists, 4 3-pointers and 2 steals.
The Clippers held the Celtics, the leading scoring team in the NBA by both volume and efficiency (119.3 points per game, 62.0% true shooting percentage), by more than 16 points and about 10% TS -Points below their average.
It was an impressive win, and in a nod to Marvel Studios, one can’t help but wonder: what if?
What if Leonard and George were healthy enough to play together for most of the rest of the season? How would that look? let’s explore
During their first two seasons together from 2019-20 to 2020-21, these were Leonard and George’s averages:
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Leonard: 26.0 PPG (48.8 FG%, 88.5 FT%, 38.7 3P%), 6.8 RPG, 5.0 APG, 2.1 3PG, 1.7 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 1st ,3 TO
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George: 22.5 PPG (45.4 FG%, 87.2 FT%, 41.2 3P%), 6.2 RPG, 4.6 APG, 3.2 3PG, 1.3 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 3rd ,0 TO
So when they’re healthy and playing together, these two do almost exactly the same things, but with Leonard, she’s a little bit more productive in every area except 3-point shooting. Interestingly, George’s numbers don’t reflect a huge increase in production over the last two seasons, as Leonard was largely absent or subdued:
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George: 24.1 PPG (43.3 FG%, 86.5 FT%, 36.5 3P%), 6.5 RPG, 5.3 APG, 2.9 3PG, 1.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 3rd .8 TO
Compared to the previous two seasons, George was definitely shooting and throwing a little more, but with a lower field goal percentage and with more turnovers. Playing alongside Leonard helped his efficiency enough to largely offset the slightly fewer touches.
So that gives us an idea of what the two main players could be doing on the pitch, but what about the rest of the Clippers?
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In this week’s FBA points rankings, alongside Leonard and George, seven Clippers are in the top 175, including Ivica Zubac, Marcus Morris Sr., Norman Powell, Reggie Jackson and John Wall. Other clippers flirting with the edge of the fantasy tire radar include Terance Mann, Robert Covington, Nicolas Batum and Luke Kennard. They’re a strong team, which is why they can stay competitive when one or both of their stars are on the shelf. But what could these players produce when Leonard and George are largely healthy?
Well, to start we have to point out the statistic I left out in the two-year lines above: games played. From 2019-20 to 20-21, Leonard played in 109 of 144 regular-season games (75.7% of games), while George played in 102/144 (70.8%). While we’re saying “What if you were healthy?” Practice, we should pay attention to one factor that will be at best true this season: Leonard will miss about a quarter of all games.
While George tends to miss games in patches due to various ailments, Leonard misses half of every consecutive game and also has the occasional maintenance day as a regular part of enrollment through an NBA season. He started it with the Raptors after tearing a quad tendon with the Spurs and I can’t think of a scenario where he would stop now that he’s recovering from his ACL tear. So while we might say “what if?” George plays most nights, Leonard won’t be in more than three out of four games.
This is key when projecting the other Clippers. Because while PG13 and Kawhi are putting up big scores in almost every game they play regular minutes in, the other guys will occasionally have a big game while ultimately settling down to more moderate averages. Take a look at the past six games that Leonard has played in four of:
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Against Sacramento (no Kawhi): Zubac 13 points, 10 rebounds; Brandon Boston Jr. 18 points, 4 3-pointers; Man 13 points, 3 assists
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Against Charlotte (Kawhi): Wall 13 points, 12 assists; Jackson 13 points, 3 3-pointers; Batum 13 points, 4 3-pointers; Morris 12 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 3-pointers
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Against Orlando (Kahwi): man 19 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists; Batum 16 points, 4 3-pointers; Zubac 16 points, 10 rebounds; Jackson 15 points
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Against Miami (no Kawhi): Jackson 20 points, 4 3-pointers; Wall 9 points, 8 assists; Morris 11 points, 4 rebounds; Batum 11 points, 3 3-pointers
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Against Washington (Kawhi): Morris 19 points, 6 rebounds, 5 3-pointers; Wall 13 points, 3 assists; Batum 12 points, 4 3-pointers; Kennard 10 points, 5 assists, 3 3-pointers
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Against Boston (Kawhi): Morris 13 points; Kennard 12 points, 2 3-pointers; Man 9 points, 7 rebounds
The point is that in each game different “others” contributed. Nothing flashy and perhaps not enough for enduring squad status in shallower leagues. But there could be three to six Clippers, which are streamer options most nights, even if Leonard and George are both on the court at the same time.
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Let’s step out of the fantasy hoop for a moment and consider some futures.
The Clippers are 16-13 on the season, sixth in the Western Conference and second in the Pacific. The Pacific is particularly tight, with the top four teams separated by two games in the standings (and even the Lakers are just 4.5 games behind).
According to Caesars Sportsbook, the Clippers have the third-longest odds of winning the Pacific (+375), behind the Phoenix Suns (-130), who trail them by half a game, and the Golden State Warriors (+300). who they are ahead of. In the 2019-20 season, the Clippers outscored their opponents by 12.6 points per 100 possessions when both George and Leonard were on the court together. The next season, the Clippers outperformed their opponents with a whopping 17.8 PP100 when Leonard and George shared the court. This season it went even further, outperforming their opponents with a 19.9 PP100 in lineups featuring all fours of George, Leonard, Zubac and Morris. In our “What if they are healthy?” This scenario could very well bode well for the Clippers’ chances of making a run for possibly finishing at the top of the division.
Indeed, think of these positive lineup results and then consider what it could mean for the Clippers in other futures markets. According to Caesars, the Clippers’ over-under limit is just 45.5 wins, which is in line with the pace they’re already at with 16 wins in their first 29 games (55.2%). If George and Leonard are healthy they would expect to improve significantly.
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On the other hand, Caesars seems to have already baked our “What if?” into the conference and NBA title odds, where the Clippers have the second-shortest odds of winning the Western Conference (+450) and fourth-shortest of winning the NBA championship (+900), ahead of many teams with better records. Those odds only make sense if the Clippers are expected to have their two stars available and be successful in the postseason.
Just some things to think about, both on the fantasy and future fronts.
Now it’s up to you. How likely do you think our “what if” is? Scenario should become reality? Your answer will impact both your fantasy hoops trading strategy and your potential futures decisions.
For me, the takeaways that caught my eye were on the futures side. I think the Clips could blow that 45.5 wins out of the water and have a very good chance of ending up at the top of the Pacific Division. In fact, I’m excited enough to end this article now and explore these futures options more thoroughly.
I encourage you to think about this and follow your own conclusions, but there are certainly some actionable trends depending on your answers to one of the big “what ifs?” Questions in the NBA.
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