Chicago | Reuters – Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures fell to their lowest level in more than two years on Thursday and corn futures hit a three-year low before markets turned higher on short selling and technical buying, analysts said.
Expectations of sufficient global supplies and improved harvest weather in Brazil, the world's largest soybean exporter, continued to hang on the markets.
However, soy and corn futures are oversold after recent losses, said Tomm Pfitzenmaier, analyst at Summit Commodity Brokerage.
“The soybean and flour markets are the most oversold they have been in eight months,” he said.
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Livestock futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange surged to their highest level in about eight weeks on Thursday on further buying, traders said.
The most active CBOT soybean futures Sv1 closed down 7-3/4 cents at $12.13-1/2 a bushel, after earlier falling to $12.01, the lowest since November 2021. Soymeal March SMH24 closed $2.60 higher at $361.30 per short ton.
Corn futures Cv1 rose 1-3/4 cents to $4.44 a bushel, after hitting its lowest price since December 2020 at $4.36-3/4.
“Traders are trying to figure out how much the soy market will be affected by negative news after recent declines,” said Don Roose, president of brokerage US Commodities.
“It’s more of an exhausting rally,” Roose said.
“It's a market where you get to a point: What's the fair market value? You get negative news and you don’t move forward because it’s already on the market.”
The beneficial rains have allayed concerns about drought damage to crops in Brazil. Consulting firm Agroconsult nevertheless lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 153.8 million tonnes from 161.6 million in November.
A decline in Brazilian soybean production could be offset by an expected record harvest in Argentina, analysts said.
“There are some concerns about the Brazilian crop, but any losses appear to be offset by a recovery in the Argentine crop,” said Andrew Whitelaw, analyst at Episode 3 in Canberra.
CBOT Wv1 wheat settled down 3 cents at $5.85-1/2 a bushel, after earlier falling to its lowest level since Nov. 29. KC KWH24 and MGEX-Wheat MWEH24 rebounded from contract lows.
On Friday, traders will review weekly U.S. grain and soy export sales data.
–Additional reporting for Reuters by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra.
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