Two games into the Premier League season, football bettors start making first impressions of each team.
Despite being a relatively small statistical sample, Manchester City appear well on their way to another title, while the top four race will (probably) boil down to five teams – City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham . Based on that belief, it’s difficult to make an argument for getting into a future live game unless you have a sizeable bankroll.
However, a few early impressions from the midfielders leave me encouraged enough to enter two live futures markets. Getting straight to the games offering odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook thoughtful at the time of writing.
If you had told me before the season started that I would support Brighton for a top six finish after selling Yves Bissouma and Marc Cucurella I would have thought you crazy.
Ah, here we are. Manager Graham Potter’s side have got off to a solid start, taking all three points against Manchester United at Old Trafford and drawing at home to Newcastle United. However, the Seagulls dominated the xG fight in this match and honestly were unlucky not to get all three points.
Additionally, there are some reasons to help Brighton steal a place in the top six from Manchester United, who look beyond repair given their opening two games.
Historically, Brighton’s midfield placements have largely been a product of poor first halves. But once the second half rolls around, Brighton – historically at least – is doing pretty well. Last season, Potter’s side avoided defeat in 14 of 19 games as they faced a team for the second time. In addition, Brighton won the expected goalscoring in 10 of those 19 games.
In addition, Brighton have established themselves as a very reliable home side. For the past two seasons, Brighton have finished third and tenth in the xGDiff home table. Brighton were also very good at home against teams from the bottom half last season. In 10 such games, they averaged +0.67 xGDiff per 90 minutes and won seven out of 10 games on expected goals.
If Brighton can continue that positive run in the first half and pick up enough points, their second-half trends should allow them to move up to sixth place. For those reasons, it feels worth flying at just over +600.
Historically, the worst offenses in the league are those facing relegation. Those who end up at the end usually have no goals instead of conceding many goals.
I recognize that Bournemouth’s two-game example includes an away game against Manchester City where they looked lifeless, but that offense is pure rubbish. On Matchday 1 at home to Aston Villa, the Cherries managed just 0.59 expected goals and one great scoring opportunity, according to fotmob.com. Should this continue, Bournemouth could face a lengthy campaign from manager Scott Parker.
In terms of their competition, I rate the race down as three teams for one spot. Joining Bournemouth are Nottingham Forest and Southampton as contenders for 20th in the league. Forest are spending like crazy though and the additions of Emmanuel Dennis, Jesse Lingard and (probably) Houssem Aouar should give them enough attacking pieces to stay out of the bottom.
As for Southampton, while I think there’s a chance they’ll be relegated, there’s enough top-flight experience in the squad that I think they stay out of bottom. And despite losing 15 per cent of their xG total this off-season, Southampton still finished 11th in overall xG last season, according to fbref.com.
Based on those factors, I’ll play Bournemouth at +125 or better for an absolutely final finish.
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