While some of the usual suspects have shaped the landscape of the 2022 MLB season, this year has also been marked by the emergence of some incredible young talent.
The following player awards futures markets will highlight some of these superstars who will no doubt figure prominently as the season nears October.
Odds on DraftKings sportsbook
American League
Rookie of the Year: Julio Rodriguez (SEA) (-370)
As the odds imply, Julio Rodriguez is the clear frontrunner for the AL ROY award. Selected as a 2022 All-Star, Rodriguez leads all qualified rookies in WAR, H, R, 2B, HR, RBI and SB. His accomplishments extend beyond individual accolades as he was the engine behind Seattle’s scorching end of the first half of the season. Watch as Rodriguez continues his ROY campaign into the second half of 2022, leading the Mariners to their first playoff spot since 2001.
Cy Young: Shane McClanahan (TB) (+205)
Shane McClanahan lived up to every expectation in his first full season in the Big League and earned the honor of starting in the All-Star Game for the AL. The hard-throwing left-hander holds a 10-3 record going into the break and leads all qualified starting pitchers with an absurdly low 1.71 ERA. McClanahan ranks first in strikeout percentage while walking less than 5% of the batters he faces. The slash line for opposing hitters against McClanahan is a ridiculous .176/.216/.289, all of which are good for top 3 marks in all of MLB.
If it weren’t for the season Justin Verlander is having, this would hardly be considered a race. Verlander’s success offers value to bet on McClanahan here, although the young left-hander outperforms Verlander on almost every pitching metric. Additionally, only time will tell how Verlander’s arm will hold up after his season-long injury recovery.
Most Valuable Player: Aaron Judge (NYY) (+150)
Reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani is the clear favorite for the 2022 AL MVP award going into the Midsummer Classic, although there’s reason to believe it’s coming at the wrong price. For starters, no player has repeated as an MVP since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and 2013. The MVP is a largely narrative award, and Judge was ousted from AL MVP by Jose Altuve in the midst of the Astros cheating scandal in 2017.
Judge leads all of baseball with 33 homers and 209 total bases and ranks in the top three in SLG%, OPS and RBIs. His run connects to the ball at the highest rate in the majors, resulting in the second-highest average exit velocity in the league. Judge excelled in several OF positions, leading all AL position players with a 4.4 WAR. Finally, Judge led the Yankees to a scorching 64-28 record while the hapless Angels are 14 games under .500.
Bundesliga
Rookie of the Year: Michael Harris II (ATL) (+210)
The NL ROY race features a fight between Michael Harris II (OF) and Spencer Strider (P) of the Atlanta Braves. The ROY Award is unique because it does not discriminate between pitchers and position players. Yet when I compare the two projects, I give Harris a slight advantage.
The Braves have an incredible 34-14 record since Harris debuted in late May. It took him less than two months to amass the fifth-highest WAR (2.1) on the Braves list, higher than Strider’s (1.9). Harris’ .283 BA and .497 SLG% beat AL ROY favorite Julio Rodriguez, and his WAR is tied on points among all other NL rookies. Not only did Harris make it on the plate, he has 10 SB while proving to be a phenomenal CF for Atlanta.
Cy Young: Sandy Alcantara (MIA) (-125)
In today’s baseball game, where managers are content to cut the game short and get into their powerful bullpens as quickly as possible, Sandy Alcantara is something of an anomaly. With a sparkling 1.76 ERA, he’s the only NL pitcher to have two CGs on his tally, and he leads the league in IP by a wide margin. Alcantara’s ability to avoid hard contact and get batters out of the league.
With all the innings he’s pitched, Alcantara has dropped just 6 HR, good for third place overall in MLB and second place in the NL. Opponents hit a miserable .190/.248/.292 against Alcantara, which he achieves by missing barrels at the second highest rate in the NL (4.7%). Alcantara and Corbin Burnes have incredibly similar numbers across the board, but Alcantara’s ability to consistently go deeper in games and avoid hard-hit balls gives him the advantage.
Most Valuable Player: Austin Riley (ATL) (+1400)
While the AL MVP race shows a noticeable drop after the two favorites, the competition for the NL MVP is much more congested, allowing for a long win. While Paul Goldschmidt was a hitting machine in the first half of 2022, he was actually outperformed by Riley in several offensive categories and has had limited defensive impact compared to Riley.
Riley leads the NL with 208TB and crushed 27 HRs compared to Goldschmidt’s 20. Riley ranks among the top 5 in the NL in offensive WAR, SLG% and OPS while producing a top 5 average exit velocity across MLB . Although Goldschmidt has better numbers in some categories, advanced analysis and expected statistics favor Riley because he can hit the ball more often than Goldschmidt (Riley 15.7%; Goldschmidt 11.3%). Additionally, by the end of the year, the Braves will likely be a more successful team, with a better record and a better chance of making the playoffs than the Cardinals.
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