As the MLB season takes its annual break, it’s a great time to take stock of the current futures market and see where the value is. While some Futures/Awards games have clear favorites, there are still enough games for some significant shifts before we hit October.
World Champions: New York Mets (+700)
At this point in the season, the Yankees (+300) and the Dodgers (+350) are the favorites in each league to win the World Series. While both teams have impressed so far, team performance before the All-Star break isn’t always an indicator of playoff success. In the last five full MLB seasons, only two World Series winners have led their league during the All-Star break (Boston 2018, Houston 2017).
When subtracting our contender from a team outside of the top two, I love the value of putting the Mets at +700. In recent years, the Mets overtook “Who’s On First” as baseball’s most popular joke. They’ve been building aggressively for the past few seasons and their fans’ patience is finally paying off. 58-35 at the break, they are just 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for the top spot in the National League.
The Mets have a great mix of star power and depth for a playoff run. Pete Alonso is the face of their offense, but contributions from Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo up and down the lineup make the Mets lineup one of the strongest in baseball.
Max Scherzer is the headliner of the pitching team, but Taijuan Walker pitches very well with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 91.2 innings. With Jacob deGrom’s impending return, it’s difficult to see another team in MLB doing well with this playoff rotation. Additionally, Edwin Diaz was arguably the best closer in baseball this year, with a 1.69 ERA, 20 saves and 75 K’s in 37.1 innings.
There isn’t a baseball team the Mets can’t compete with in a playoff series. With the +700 available price, they’re better value than the Dodgers or Yankees at the moment.
Favorite Division Winner: Cleveland Guardians (+450)
There are currently only three divisions in baseball in which the first-place team has fewer than nine breakup games. Of these three divisions (AL Central, NL East, NL Central), only the AL Central is a true three-team race. Only three games separate the Twins, White Sox and Guardians.
The Guardians sit behind this group of teams. They have two All-Star starters in their lineup, including rim MVP nominee Jose Ramirez, and another All-Star on their pitching team in Shane Beiber. Cleveland was inconsistent in the first half and suffered from an odd scheduling quirk — they’ve played seven doubleheaders so far this season due to lack of rain. The toll this is taking on a pitching rod looks like it’s beginning to catch up with them. In the last five doubleheaders, they are 5-0 in the second game while allowing an average of 6.0 runs per game. Cleveland still has a few doubleheaders to go in the second half, but hopefully the All-Star break can give their arms the rest they need.
The Guardians also suffered from a lack of depth across the line-up earlier this year, but some lower-profile players are starting to reverse things. Amed Rosario, Steven Kwan and Franmil Reyes have all played their best baseball of the season over the past few weeks.
With a lineup showing signs of turning around, an easier second-half schedule and the star power to win big games, Cleveland at +450 is an excellent bet in a division that’s currently close to a three-way coin toss.
NL MVP: Freddie Freeman (+1500)
If the vote took place today, Paul Goldschmidt would be the legitimate MVP on the NL side, as reflected by his current +105 price.
While Goldschmidt had a fantastic first half, his numbers have cooled off a bit from an incredible start to the season. In his last 30 games, he’s cut .315/.402/.550 with 6 HRs and 19 RBI. This would set him up for an impressive season, but his numbers don’t necessarily point in the right direction for an MVP title.
If we’re looking for a sleeper game for NL MVP, I love the stat in Freeman at +1500. The Dodgers are filling the NL MVP leaderboards, with Mookie Betts priced at +1300 and Trea Turner currently priced at +1700. This effectively means that the betting markets are putting a +400 price on someone from the Dodgers who wins MVP.
Freeman is playing the best baseball of the three at the moment – he currently leads the trio in WAR, batting average, OBP and SLG pct.
If the Dodgers finish the regular season at the top of the National League, Freeman will have a strong case for MVP. Get on board while you can at this price.
AL MVP: Aaron Judge (+150)
In the weeks leading up to the All-Star Break, all the AL MVP hype revolved around Shohei Ohtani. Rightly so — over the past month he’s cut .283/.395/.557 with 7 HRs and 22 RBI as a batter.
Those numbers come from someone who’s been serving like a Cy Young contender in his last seven starts, and he’s 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA, a .94 WHIP and 60km on 12 walks. The way he’s playing right now calling him the Babe Ruth of our time is giving Ruth a little too much credit.
While Ohtani has been electrified of late, futures markets often overprice hot names based on momentum. On the season, Judge has higher averages (.284-.258), OBP (.364-.348), and SLG (.618-.486) with more HRs (33-19) and RBI (70-56). .
The judge’s Yankees playing nearly .700 baseball and going on the break will help his narration. By comparison, Ohtani’s Angels are under .500 in 14 games and are on track to miss the playoffs by a wide margin.
Factor in some level of voter fatigue towards Ohtani, and I’ll take Judge while I can still get him to plus money.
NL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes (+700)
Sandy Alcantara was the top pitcher in the National League this season. His ERA of 1.76 is by far the lowest in the NL. He’s maintained that low ERA for 138.1 innings (the most in the NL). If the season ended today he would be an easy pick for the NL Cy Young.
Despite Alcantara’s dominance, there’s still plenty of time to play out new storylines before the votes are cast. In full seasons since 2015, the MLB leader has pitched an average of 222.0 innings pitched. In that time frame, no one played more than 232.2 innings.
After ninety-one games into the Marlins season, Alcantara is on track to play 246 innings in 2022. There are two ways this can end for Alcantara: He exceeds the pitcher stamina standard that has been set over the last seven years (which could hurt performance). , or he dials back his innings count.
If we look beyond Alcantara, Corbin Burnes has the second-lowest odds of taking home the award in 2022. Burnes had a tough game against the Padres on June 3, allowing five earned runs with eight hits over 3.2 innings. Since then he has been the best pitcher in the NL – in seven games he is 4-1 with a 1.59 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 12.0 K/9.
If Burnes continues at this rate, the late September conversation could very well be about how he carried the Brewers to the playoffs, while Alcantara sees some of his numbers suffering from a heavy workload. At the price on offer, Burnes is great value for money for NL Cy Young.
AL Cy Young: Shane McClanahan (+210)
Unlike other award races, the AL Cy Young competition puts value at the top of the rankings.
McClanahan was incredible in his second full season for the Rays, going 10-3 with a 1.71 ERA and 147K (12.0K/9). He’s been ratcheting it up as the season has progressed – as of early June, his ERA is 1.17 and his WHIP is a microscopic 0.63. McClanahan was a big reason the Rays are in the middle of the playoff race. Unlike Alcantara, his workload up to this point should allow him to pitch at this rate year-round.
Behind McClanahan, the race gets a little murky. Justin Verlander has the second lowest rate at +260. However, McClanahan has been better than Verlander all season. While Verlander has been hot lately, McClanahan has upped his game more than Verlander in recent starts. Verlander’s price feels a bit like paying for the name.
The player most on my radar for skipping McClanahan is Shohei Ohtani (+850). As mentioned in the AL-MVP section, Ohtani has been electric on the hill recently. If he doesn’t end up taking home MVP, voters could vote him for Cy Young in recognition of the incredible season he’s had.
Still, I feel good about playing McClanahan here — it’s not a suspension, but he’s a step ahead of the rest of the AL and nobody seems to be gaining ground.
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