We’re treated to two Monday Night Football games in Week 2, with Tennessee traveling to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Our NFL betting tips predict a tough day in the air for Tannehill, who could struggle against this strong defense.
Welcome to our free NFL betting tips and predictions for the Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills.
The Buffalo Bills proved they deserve to be at the top of the Super Bowl ratings board by making a big statement last Thursday in the 2022 season opener.
Buffalo blasted the reigning champion LA Rams on the road in Week 1 and now has their sights set on last year’s top seed in the AFC – the Tennessee Titans – in Week 2.
The Bills had a little bye to prepare for their home opener, which is one of the reasons this line is rising towards the host team. Tennessee’s Week 1 performance against the NY Giants doesn’t help the visitor, as the Titans gambled away a 13-0 advantage in the second half to lose 21-20 with 5.5-point home chalk.
We analyze the adjustments to the points spread and the over/under total and give our best bet below.
Titans vs. Bills best odds
Titans vs. Bills tips and predictions
The last time these franchises went head-to-head, the Titans won a 34-31 shootout at home last October. And although Tennessee outclassed the mighty Bills in that game, quarterback Ryan Tannehill didn’t have a great performance.
Tannehill finished just 18-to-29 for 216 yards, no touchdowns and one interception (he ran for a TD). It was Tennessee’s fast attack that anchored that win, with RB Derrick Henry rumbling for 143 yards and three points — one of which was a 76-yard TD run.
Looking at that rematch in 2022, not only is Tennessee headed into Week 2, but Tannehill’s receiving corps isn’t what it was last time these enemies clashed. AJ Brown and Julio Jones are gone, with this pair averaging 150 yards on 10 receptions against the Bills.
Tannehill threw for 266 yards in the Week 1 loss to New York and caught on 20 of 33 attempts for two touchdowns against an aggressive Giants defense, bringing plenty of blitz under new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. The G-Men blitzed nearly 49% of dropbacks — third highest in Week 1 — and the Titans QB was 7.3 yards per attempt and completing 60% of throws for 109 yards in those situations.
Tannehill is one of the better QBs in the league when it comes to extra rushers, but struggles when opponents can only press with the front four. Last season, his yards per attempt dropped to 5.6 under pressure versus 7.8 when blitzing — he completed just 53.7% of his shots, according to the PFF. That’s exactly what the Bills can take advantage of on Monday night.
Buffalo grabbed seven sacks and seven QB knockdowns in the win over the Rams and recorded a 30.6% pressure rate without requiring additional pass rushes. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier blitzed just once with 49 dropbacks from LA and the Bills ranked 10th in pass rush win rate on ESPN. Buffalo’s allowable EPA per dropback was the second-lowest in the country (-0.308) against a far larger airstrike.
Tennessee’s offensive line was a major concern early in the season, stemming from a 2021 season that saw the pass protection at Football Outsiders rank 26th in adjusted sack rating. And while this group held up better-than-expected against the Giants in Week 1, the Bills are a huge step up in defensive competition and I’m betting on a bad day from Tannehill in terms of passing meters.
In addition to the pressure from the Bills and the versatile linebackers who were able to clog up passing lanes and wipe out YAC, Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel wasn’t thrilled with offensive coordinator Todd Downing’s play prompt in Week 1.
Downing snubbed his star rusher Henry on a number of key possessions in the second half and gave the RB just 21 carries, a far cry from his workload last year before suffering a mid-season foot injury and returning for the playoffs.
With Tannehill feeling the heat of the Buffalo defense, expect this playbook to go wrong after committing just 43% of snaps in Week 1 — a notable drop from a playbook that ran 48.78% in 2021 .
my best bet: Ryan Tannehill under 216.5 yards (-115 at BetMGM)
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Titans vs Bills betting preview
Jump to:
•Spread Analysis •Over/Under Analysis •game info •injuries •weather •trends to know
Spread Analysis
The lookahead line for this Monster AFC matchup was Buffalo -7.5 over the summer. Following Week 1 results, Buffalo’s books reopened to a low of -9 and that quickly rose as high as -10.5 on some sportsbooks.
The Bills’ opening night performance against the Rams followed a summer of love for the Bills Mafia, which caused plenty of action in all of their futures markets. Buyback on the Titans has since reduced that spread to as low as Buffalo -9.5 with most trades trading at -10.
Covers Consensus shows 61% of picks on the home team, while sportsbooks like WynnBet report 60% of ticket counts on the bills, but big bets grabbed the Titans as underdogs, and that has more than 79% of the lead in Tennessee.
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Over/Under Analysis
That over/under total was 51 points on the offseason lookahead lines and reopened at 50 points last Sunday night.
The Under saw early action that took that tally to just 48 points for many operators, with Buffalo handling the Rams offense with ease in Week 1 and the Titans’ once-powerful attack being hampered by the Giants’ defense last Sunday.
Covers Consensus shows 61% of tips on the over while WynnBet books report 55% of bets on the over but a whopping 97% of early money bouncing on the under which has forced the books to reduce that total.
Titans vs. Bills game information
• location: Highman Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
• date: Monday 19 September 2022
• kicking off: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Titans vs Bill’s key injuries
Titans vs. Bill’s weather
Monitor game conditions with our live NFL weather information and learn how weather affects NFL betting.
Titans vs. Bills betting trend to get to know
The Bills are 12-4 SU and 10-5-1 ATS in their first three games of the season in the last five years (since Sean McDermott took over as head coach). Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Bills.
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