This NFL trend states that Chiefs, Bengals or Eagles will miss the playoffs and only these 8 teams can win Super Bowl 58
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) warms up before an NFL wildcard playoff football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, January 15, 2023 at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals Afc Wild Card Jan 15 0037 Syndication The Enquirer
- Historical NFL trends, derived from my NFL Power Rankings, point us to some pretty interesting potential outcomes for the 2023-24 NFL season
- See which eight teams are the only ones with a chance of winning Super Bowl 58 according to this trend
- Read about the odds that one of the Chiefs, Bengals or Eagles, three top contenders this season, will miss the NFL playoffs
With less than two weeks until the start of the 2023-24 NFL season, bettors have run out of time to bet on the current NFL futures markets. Yes, NFL futures are available all season long, but once the season starts and we get our first real look at each of the 32 teams, we’ll see dramatic changes in every futures market.
With that in mind, I wanted to share two of the strongest NFL trends coming out of my annual NFL power rankings. Because I formulate these power rankings and don’t involve subjectivity/opinion, we can look back at past seasons and draw conclusions for the year ahead. Let’s dive in!
Which teams are good bets to win the Super Bowl?
For each of the past five seasons, a team in the top eight of the Power Rankings list has won the Super Bowl. Here are the details:
- The Chiefs ranked 6th in the power rankings last year and won Super Bowl 57
- The Rams were ranked 7th two years ago and won Super Bowl 56
- The Buccaneers finished 8th three years ago and won Super Bowl 55
- The Chiefs ranked No. 4 four years ago and won Super Bowl 54
- The Patriots ranked No. 1 five years ago and won Super Bowl 53
So according to this NFL trend, there are only eight teams worth betting on to win Super Bowl 58. Here are the top eight teams in my NFL Power Rankings along with their Super Bowl odds.
- Kansas City Chiefs (+600)
- Cincinnati Bengals (+1100)
- Philly Eagles (+650)
- San Francisco 49ers (+1000)
- Buffalo Tickets (+900)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+3000)
- Baltimore Ravens (+1800)
- Dallas Cowboys (+1400)
According to this trend, if you already have a Super Bowl ticket with another team’s name on it, that’s as good as garbage. The above eight teams are pretty close to the top eight contenders in Super Bowl odds. The only team missing is the New York Jets, who currently have the seventh best chance of winning the Super Bowl. They rank ninth in my NFL power rankings while the Jaguars held their place in the top eight. Jacksonville’s odds are certainly the longest at +3000.
To be clear, I’m not suggesting that you assign a unit to each of these eight teams. That would not be responsible gambling or a smart series of wagers. Firstly, do not lock up eight full units of your balance on Super Bowl futures or any other futures bet. Second, if you tried this, you would lose money if one of two teams wins. Your payout for the Chiefs and Eagles will be less than the eight units you risked to cover all teams.
Bet on a top contender missing out on the playoffs
At least one team in the top three in the Power Rankings has missed the playoffs in seven of the last eight seasons. It was the Rams, the third-ranked team in the power rankings, that suffered last year. Here’s a closer look at this trend:
- 2022: The third-ranked Rams, trying to defend their Super Bowl championship, fail to make the playoffs
- 2021: No team from the top three missed out
- 2020: The third-seeded 49ers miss the playoffs a year after losing the Super Bowl
- 2019: The third-seeded Rams miss the playoffs a year after losing the Super Bowl
- 2018: The runners-up Steelers miss the playoffs
- 2017: The second- and third-ranked Seahawks and Cowboys both miss the playoffs
- 2016: The runners-up Panthers miss the playoffs a year after losing the Super Bowl
- 2015: The third-placed Colts miss the playoffs
The only outlier comes in 2021, when all of Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Buffalo, the top three teams on the Power ladder, made the playoffs. However, the fourth-place Ravens failed in the end.
It seems fairly common for the third-place team to be the one to miss the playoffs, which doesn’t bode well for the Philadelphia Eagles, who rank third in my 2023 NFL Power Rankings. There also seems to be a common thread missing the playoffs a year after losing the Super Bowl, which again isn’t what Eagles fans/bettors want to see.
Correctly calculated 2023 NFL strength of schedule for each team
Here’s a reminder of who the top three teams in this year’s Power Rankings are and their NFL playoff odds:
- Kansas City Chiefs (-450 to make playoffs / +360 to miss playoffs)
- Cincinnati Bengals (-255 to make / +215 to miss)
- Philadelphia Eagles (-500 to make / +400 to miss)
It’s extremely hard to imagine any of those three teams missing out on the playoffs this season, but we’ve all said the same thing seven of the last eight seasons as we watched a top contender fail. The reality is that staying good in the NFL is incredibly hard, and injuries can happen.
These three teams sit at the top of the Power rankings in 2023 due to their very successful season last year, which generally means they stayed healthy. While many signs point to the Eagles being the team to miss this year, my bet is on the Bengals. Joe Burrow will start the season a bit shaky and the AFC North will be brutally tough. Every team in the division (Steelers, Browns and Ravens) should be better than last year.
Matt McEwan
After working in television, Matt turned his attention to numbers, particularly ratings. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as Editor-in-Chief of SBD. Among other things, he is responsible for the development of our futures trackers, SBD’s score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating the NFL SOS.
Matt McEwan
After working in television, Matt turned his attention to numbers, particularly ratings. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as Editor-in-Chief of SBD. Among other things, he is responsible for the development of our futures trackers, SBD’s score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating the NFL SOS.
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