Two weeks ago, the Tampa Bay Rays prepared for Opening Day with the following expectations in the MLB betting circles:
3rd best odds to win the American League East.
Tie for the 5th best odds to win the American League pennant.
Tie for 12th best odds to win the World Series.
Eleven wins in a row later? Let’s just say the expectations for the team that leads all of baseball in runs made, runs allowed, home runs hit, fewest home runs allowed, OPS and ERA have changed a bit – oh, and money won for bettors.
Here’s a look at where the Rays currently stand in various MLB futures markets after having their best start to the season in nearly four decades.
The odds were updated at 2:15pm ET on April 12th.
Make a run in history
Tampa Bay has qualified for baseball’s postseason for the past four years. This franchise-record run includes two division titles, a runner-up spot and a World Series appearance (2020).
So it’s not like the Rays have entered the 2023 season, which is expected to battle the Oakland A’s and the Washington Nationals for baseball’s worst record.
However, MLB oddsmakers and bettors didn’t exactly put a “buy” sign on this year’s club.
Before opening day, Tampa Bay was +350 at BetMGM to win the American League East – a distant third behind defending champions New York Yankees (+100) and Toronto Blue Jays (+220).
The Rays also trailed those two rivals — as well as the Houston Astros (last year’s World Series champion) and Seattle Mariners (who have never been to a World Series) — in odds of winning the American League pennant. Tampa Bay was +1200 at BetMGM, level on points with the Chicago White Sox.
The Rays odds of winning the World Series before spring training: +2200, level with the Milwaukee Brewers and behind more than a third of MLB’s 30 teams.
Then came Opening Day and a 4-0 shutout by the Detroit Tigers, who were defeated in the three-game series by a 21-3 aggregate score.
Tampa Bay then traveled to Washington and swept three games from the Nationals with a combined score of 23-10. Followed by a three-game home win for the A’s for a combined score of 31-5. Followed by two more home wins, this time beating the Boston Red Sox 1-0 and 7-2.
The Rays’ 11-0 start is the fifth-best in MLB history — and the best since the Atlanta Braves started 1982 and the Brewers 13-0 in 1987.
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The (big) wins keep coming
Of course, many skeptics were quick to point out Tampa Bay’s incredibly soft season opening schedule. And indeed, the Rays were favored in every game – and often massively.
However, it’s difficult to argue 11-0 when 10 of those wins came from at least four runs.
It’s also difficult to argue with Tampa’s mind-blowing Plus 63 Run differential. Next best run differential heading into Wednesday’s action? Milwaukee under +28.
As you might suspect, baseball’s last undefeated roster also has the largest division cushion — four games ahead of the Yankees and the Blue Jays.
As you might suspect, the odds makers have adjusted the Rays’ futures prices — by a large margin.
Tampa is now favored at BetMGM to win the AL East at +130 ahead of New York (+160) and Toronto (+300). The Rays have also seen their odds of winning the American League halved at BetMGM, from +1200 to +600.
Only the Astros (+350) and Yankees (+375) have shorter AL pennant ratings.
The Rays’ rise up the BetMGM World Series odds board was even more dramatic: they now sit in seventh place with Toronto at +1200.
Further proof that Tampa commands a lot of respect in the betting community: On Wednesday, the team’s No. 1 — 22-year-old right-hander Taj Bradley — will make his major league debut against two-time strikeout king Chris Sale, runner-up in the American League 2017, Cy Young.
And Bradley and the Rays are preferred.
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Are bettors buying what Tampa is selling?
Although the Rays have set high prices in most of their games, they’ve already made a small fortune for their supporters. They are +5.3 units on the money line (tied to Arizona for tops in MLB) and +8 units on the run line (best in baseball).
However, when it comes to the futures markets, weather has been slow to warm up for Tampa Bay.
At BetMGM, the Rays are bottom in both tickets (6.4%) and money (11.4%) to win the AL East. Yes, even behind Boston (26.0% tickets, 22.1% money) and Baltimore (29.2% tickets, 22.4% money).
For American League odds, Tampa ranks ninth in number of bets placed (4.7%) and seventh in money wagers (5.7%).
And in BetMGM’s World Series market, the Rays are 13th in tickets (2.7%) and 14th in cash (2.4%).
Of course, with less than 15 percent of the season complete, there’s still a long way to go. But it’s clear that MLB futures punters are taking a wait-and-see approach on the 2023 Tampa Bay Rays.
In the meantime, these Rays have continued to rack up wins—and usually in impressive ways.
» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator or gambling site. We provide this sports betting information for entertainment purposes only.
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