The grain market sell-off continues. What gives?

• Private exporters reported stopping the sale of 272,000 tons (10,708,164 bushels) of corn for shipment to China in the 2022-2023 marketing year.

Black Sea Grains Agreement extended

• Ukraine’s Black Sea Grains Agreement was extended by two more months in what UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described as “good news for the world,” a day before Russia could have pulled out of the agreement over obstacles to its grain and fertilizer exports. -Reuters

Export Sales Estimates

• Corn: -300,000 to 500,000 tons
• Soybeans: 0 to 300,000 tons
• Wheat: 50,000 to 150,000 tons for 2022/2023 and 200,000 to 400,000 for 2023/2024.

Corn

Seasonal trend in game

• September corn futures have trended from 4/30 to 4/30 for 12 of the last 15 years. until 24.06. downward.

Specifications (July)

• July corn futures were hit hard yesterday after exports to China halted again, this time by about 10.7 million bushels. This, coupled with benign weather in many of the top growing regions, means funds are going full throttle. Prices are down again this morning, surpassing yesterday’s low, bringing us close to the lowest levels since late 2021.

Bias: Neutral

Tendency to previous session: Neutral

Resistance: 586-588***, 595-601****

Pivot: 569-572

Support: 541 1/2-550****, 516 1/2**