Any discussion about the Major League Baseball season, especially in the betting world, has to start with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers are towering over everything after their offseason spending spree. When making a World Series bet, you need to make sure that you have confidence that the team can beat the Dodgers. At least you have a good chance because the Dodgers are the big favorites.
Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers is one of the favorites for NL MVP this season. (` Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Let's look at the key markets for the MLB season with BetMGM odds:
Dodgers are the World Series favorites
Here are the top World Series contenders and their odds:
Dodgers +350
Braves +450
Astros +800
Yankees +900
Oriole +1300
Rangers +1400
Phillies +1500
Mariners +2000
Blue Jays +2000
All other teams have at least odds of 25 to 1.
It's no surprise that the Dodgers are the favorites, but their chances aren't exceptionally slim. That's partly because the Atlanta Braves are really good too and everyone remembers how random the MLB playoffs were last year and the best teams lost early. The Dodgers have the best team on paper and +350 isn't the worst value you'll find (implied odds of 22.2%, while PECOTA has Los Angeles with a 20.2% chance of winning it all), but it's hard to keep up You can keep your money at low odds for so long in such a volatile market.
Dodgers and Braves have huge win totals
The Dodgers have a win total of 103.5, which seems outrageously high. But what is stopping them from passing? Injuries could hit them, the unlikely event that the MLB investigation into Shohei Ohtani takes him off the field, complacency could set in sometime near the end of the regular season and the Dodgers know that all that matters is the postseason so they can give the players Being able to rest (especially pitchers) over the course of the season. Still, they clearly have the talent to achieve 104 wins.
The Braves also have a win total over 100 at 101.5. The team closest to the top two is the Houston Astros at 92.5.
There were three teams whose win total increased by three since the start of the grid. The Baltimore Orioles went from 87.5 to 90.5, the Cleveland Guardians went from 76.5 to 79.5 and the Pittsburgh Pirates went from 72.5 to 75.5. The Orioles command a lot of respect after their big 2023 season. The Detroit Tigers total of 81.5 is the highest one can bet on, but we can ignore that because Michigan fans love betting on their teams. The second most betting over is the Orioles.
A new AL MVP
The rest of the American League can finally dream of winning an MVP award. Shohei Ohtani plays in the National League, which makes the AL MVP market much more interesting.
A pair of Yankees, Aaron Judge (+550) and Juan Soto (+600), lead the AL MVP odds. Corey Seager and Julio Rodriguez are next at +1000. Among the other interesting candidates: Adleyrutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. at +1600 and Kyle Tucker at +1800. With Ohtani out, there is good value for some great AL players. Rodriguez is the player with the most stakes for AL MVP at BetMGM, with the Mariners star accounting for 26.3% of the money wagered on the award.
However, Ohtani isn't dominating the NL MVP odds. He won't be pitching this season due to elbow surgery, but he's still in third place with odds of +900. Ronald Acuna Jr. is the favorite at +525, Mookie Betts is at +600 and the two players after Ohtani are Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1000) and Freddie Freeman (+1100). That's three Dodgers among the top five NL MVP favorites. Betts is interesting because he had a good run last season and will be the Dodgers' shortstop, a position change that will impress voters.
Ohtani earned the most money in the NL MVP market at 15.1%. Bryce Harper is BetMGM's biggest liability at 12-1.
The other awards
Like NL MVP, a Braves player is the favorite for NL Cy Young. Spencer Strider is the favorite at +425. He is also the most-bet player and the biggest liability for BetMGM. Zach Wheeler is +900 and Logan Webb is +1000.
With Gerrit Cole, last year's AL Cy Young winner, dealing with an elbow injury, his chances of winning this award are greater. Kevin Gausman and Corbin Burnes (who moved from the NL to the AL when the Milwaukee Brewers traded him to the Orioles) are the favorites at +800. The most used player and biggest liability is Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers, who is 10-1.
The AL Rookie of the Year race is interesting because Baltimore Orioles top prospect Jackson Holliday (+450) is the most capped player but starts the season in the minors. Texas Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford is the favorite at +225.
Surprise, a Dodgers player is a major factor in the NL Rookie of the Year race. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who dominated in Japan, is the +250 favorite despite coming under fire in his first MLB start in South Korea last week. He is by far the player with the most stakes, with 44.5% of the money staked going to Yamamoto.
Comments are closed.