Bob Baffert (Benoit photo)
By Lucas Sigurdson
You’re not new here, I’m not new here. If there’s a name that epitomizes modern thoroughbred racing – whether for the right reasons or not – this is it Bob Baffert. He’s the most polarizing figure in sport and I wouldn’t say it comes close to him. Controversy aside, it’s almost ritualistic that around this time every year, handicappers begin circling the Baffert horse or horses they are targeting ahead of the Kentucky Derby. There’s no denying he’s had success on the greatest stages of thoroughbred racing and I’m sure he’s proved every one of us wrong at one time or another.
Regardless, Bob Baffert has competed with Cavonnier in at least one of the Triple Crown races for the past year, dating back to 1996. Over the past two decades, you would have had a hard time placing a bet on the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, or Belmont Stakes without Bob Baffert’s name on your ticket somewhere. Now for the second year in a row (for the Derby at least) you need to look for other angles when you get to the betting window.
With the recent court decision to uphold Churchill Downs Inc.’s two-year ban on Bob Baffert from competing on its courses, I’m afraid this year’s Run for The Roses will have the same mysterious flavor as last year: top talent, a few Asterisks attributed to Baffert’s absence and some long shots you wouldn’t even bet on. Or would you?
If you remember the 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail, horses like Epicenter, Mo Donegal and Zandon were at the top of almost everyone’s list. That is, until a lightly ridden, undefeated Taiba — formerly from Baffert’s barn — caught attention. As events unfolded, Churchill Downs Inc. would issue Bob Baffert a two-year ban resulting from Medina Spirit’s post-race positive betamethasone test following the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Taiba and Barnmate Messier, another top name in handicap circles ahead of last year’s Triple Crown, would move to the stable of longtime Baffert assistant Tim Yakteen.
A trainer under Baffert’s tutelage? Oh yes please! Sign me up! Well…Taiba’s 5/1 posttime odds weren’t looking too good as he finished 12th in the field of 20. Messier left the field at 7/1 and finished 15th.
History has now been written a thousand times: Epicenter and Zandon performed as impressively as expected, only to be surpassed by Longshot Rich Strike, a morning start to the race. If you’re anything like me, you’ve seen the Skycam view of Sonny Leon weaving Rich Strike through the crowded field over and over again.
I only mention this because I think we could go down a similar path. Now do I expect an 80-1 longshot to win the hearts of millions in the derby and be thrust into a year-long campaign among the sport’s top names? No. Do I expect another unexpected surprise this year? Crazier things have happened.
My theory starts here with Bob Baffert’s talented 3-year-olds led by Arabian Knight and Cave Rock. On March 1, horses listed as trained by Bob Baffert are permanently ineligible to compete in the Derby. We’ve already seen several stallions transferred from Baffert’s barn – Reincarnate, Hejazi, Carmel Road and Arabian Lion to Tim Yakteen; Ford Warren to Brittany Russell; Harlocap to Steve Asmussen; Gilmore to Brendan Walsh. Not all of these horses are necessarily on the Derby trail, but all are now eligible to earn Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying points.
Now the future of talented stallions Arabian Knight and Cave Rock along with Faustin and National Treasure remains uncertain. With March 1st fast approaching, there’s still some dust to be raised. It is expected that these horses will find themselves in new stables over the next few days, causing a massive shake up in the futures markets with large preparatory races. However, if last year’s Baffert barn exodus taught us anything, it’s that there can be quite a drop in performance from one barn to another. So tread carefully. For my part, I tend to fade his talented crop on Derby Day.
Outside of Bob Baffert’s barn and all the uncertainty that surrounds them, other early favorites of the Kentucky Derby include Forte, Instant Coffee, Tapit Trice and Extra Anejo. I think this field is going awfully deep – gulp, my number one choice is Signator, a 1.7m colt by Tapit, which I’ll cover in my next article – and I have questions about this year’s top contenders.
Will Instant Coffee’s late-running style, coached by Brad Cox, hold up well in a crowded field? He’s been impressively chasing down Two Phils in the G3 Lecomte Stakes, sure, but my mind is turning to the future of Breeders 2022. Instant Coffee got caught in traffic and was only able to finish fourth behind Forte, Loggins and Red Route Run. Aside from a massive tempo drop, I’m a little lukewarm about Instant Coffee’s narrower tendency to succeed in the Derby.
Can the aforementioned Todd Pletcher-trained Forte improve on his magical 2-year campaign in which he went 4 for 5 and racked up three G1 wins in the process? If the Kentucky Derby happened this Saturday, he would certainly be the morning line favorite, and rightly so. Having not raced since last November’s Breeders’ Juvenile, I look forward to seeing his 3-year-old debut in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes next month at Gulfstream Park. Maybe I’m eating my words and making this piece questionable at best on March 4th, but with Forte things just feel a little too good. As a novice handicapper, I’ve always trusted my gut feeling more than anything else. I expect Forte to be heavily backed and preferred going into Derby Day, but I just see myself going in other directions. What’s the fun in picking your favorite anyway?
As I mentioned before, this field is quite deep and paves the way for potential track chaos. With the uncertainty surrounding his crop of 3-year-olds, Bob Baffert’s upheld ban makes things all the more interesting to me. As I mentioned, I’m particularly fond of Signator, and some other potentially valuable games I’m eyeing are Blazing Sevens, Litigate, and Two Phil’s. No matter what happens, I know one thing for sure: I won’t overlook and laugh at any morning-of entry this year.
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