ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 25: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys makes a pass during the fourth quarter of the NFL game between Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on November 25, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/Getty Images via AFP)
With 5,316 passing yards last season, Tom Brady led the NFL in passing yards for the fourth time in his career. In this article, we’ve put together a little cheat sheet detailing each quarterback’s odds of leading the NFL in passing yards this season.
There are several sportsbooks that offer futures markets where you can bet on who will lead the NFL in a specific statistical category. To see if there are any significant gaps between forecasts and betting markets, I decided to compare these odds to forecasts from Fantasy Pros, ESPN and Pro Football Focus.
After comparing their predictions to their chances of leading the NFL in passing yards, the following players stand out to me.
2022 Passing Yards Leading Regular Season Odds
| player | Projections via Fantasy Pros, ESPN and PFF | Most regular season passing yards across FanDuel | Most regular season passing yards across DraftKings | Most regular-season passing yards over Caesars |
| Tom Brady | 4,819 | +850 | +800 | +700 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4,747 | +850 | +800 | +800 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4,560 | +850 | +1000 | +750 |
| Dak Prescott | 4,556 | +1200 | +1400 | +1100 |
| JustinHerbert | 4,550 | +700 | +650 | +700 |
| Joe Burrow | 4,473 | +950 | +1200 | +950 |
| Josh Allen | 4,418 | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Derek Carr | 4,326 | +1100 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Kirk cousins | 4.318 | +2100 | +1800 | +1500 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4.315 | +2600 | +1600 | +1800 |
| Kyler Murray | 4,170 | +3200 | +2800 | +2000 |
| Russell Wilson | 4,050 | +2600 | +2000 | +1500 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4,036 | +3200 | +3000 | +4000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4,001 | +4500 | +3000 | +3000 |
| Davis Mills | 3,966 | +5500 | +6000 | +10000 |
| Matt Ryan | 3,963 | +2600 | +2500 | +2000 |
| Jared Goff | 3,942 | +11000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| MacJones | 3,934 | +3200 | +3000 | +2500 |
| Carson Wentz | 3,868 | +4400 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Daniel Jones | 3,828 | +11000 | +6000 | +8000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3,746 | +3200 | +4000 | +3000 |
| Jalen hurts | 3,693 | +4400 | +4000 | +5000 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3,678 | +5500 | +5000 | +8000 |
| Trey Lance | 3,662 | +4400 | +5000 | +8000 |
| Justin Fields | 3,614 | +11000 | +10000 | +12500 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3,544 | +5500 | +6500 | +8000 |
Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (+1400 via DraftKings)
Comparing predictions to odds of leading the NFL in passing yards, one name stands out from the rest: Dak Prescott. Although its projections are on par with some of the favorites, its price point is significantly higher. Compared to Justin Herbert, Prescott’s price is roughly double Herbert’s, and Prescott is expected to throw slightly more yards than Herbert.
Prescott is obviously concerned after losing several of his guns from last season, including Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson. Michael Gallup is also injured and the offensive line at Dallas isn’t as strong as it used to be. While there are a number of narratives that work against him, there are also some that work in his favor.
Prescott will face one of the easier schedules against pass defenses, sixth-easiest to be precise according to Warren Sharp’s preview. Prescott will therefore have an advantage over Tom Brady, last year’s passing leader and one of the shorter shooters, as he faces the seventh most difficult passing plan.
In the past, Prescott has proven his ability to conquer this market. With 4,902 passing yards in 2019, he finished second to Jameis Winston, which would have been enough for him to win that market in 2017 and 2020.
I believe Prescott’s prices are wrong, but timing when you buy this futures bet will help you maximize the mispricing as Week 1 features a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I recommend waiting until after this game to buy Prescott.
Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (+2600 via FanDuel)
Despite the $10 difference between FanDuel (+2600) and DraftKings (+1600) for Aaron Rodgers to lead the NFL in passing yards, I tend to agree with FanDuel’s pricing versus DraftKings.
Despite winning multiple MVP awards and being one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks, Rodgers hasn’t been as competitive in that market as one would expect. Fourth is his best finish since 2016 in that statistical category, and although he finished in the top five, he was still 700 yards behind Drew Brees.
Even though FanDuel is touting Rodgers at +2600 to lead the NFL in passing, I pale him in that market.
Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+700 via FanDuel)
Not to put any pressure on you, but you should now decide whether to fade Herbert or support him in this market. In Week 1 through Week 4, he will face one of the easier passing schedules, beginning with a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1.
There is a very good chance that Herbert – who opened as a favorite – will remain the favorite and his odds will drop from the +700 price point well into mid-season. After week 12, Herbert’s pass plan becomes significantly more difficult. At this point you want to buy other players if you want to fade him.
I’m going to let Herbert fade in this market and I’m aware that this decision might not look good until later in the season. The +700 price point we’re getting for Herbert doesn’t sit well with me compared to someone like Prescott at +1400.
Where to Bet on NFL Passing Yards Leader
Here are our top rated sports bets:
FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesar’s Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM
SEE ALSO: All tips, odds and sports betting news. Be sure to check out the SportsbookReview.com community forums and betting tools.
Jon Metler
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Jon Metler is a sports betting analyst at SportsbookReview.com. He has been in sports betting for over 12 years and specializes in futures markets. He keeps a close eye on futures market movements across a variety of sports in search of value. He is a firm believer in analytics and always being one step ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. Jon covers futures markets in the MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAF, NCAAB, PGA Tour and LPGA. A lifelong Detroit Tigers fan, he still has nightmares of Torii Hunter knocking over the Boston Red Sox’s bullpen. After redeeming consecutive LPGA Money List futures tickets priced up to +8000 in 2020, Jon serves as the President of the Jin Young Ko Fan Club. Jon has a bachelor’s degree in Physical Education from the University of Windsor. You can find him watching games, listening to sports, or looking for his golf ball in the woods.
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