OPINION – Sustainability along the Belt and Road: Geopolitics, Lockdowns and the Post-Pandemic Era

Since the Chinese government announced the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Kazakhstan in 2013, the geographic scope, political and economic impact of the BRI has expanded to a degree that is difficult to calculate. By 2022, China had signed more than 200 BRI cooperation documents with 147 countries and 32 international organizations. The initiatives contained in this grand strategy have grown in both quantity and complexity across sectors and geographic regions, from the Arctic to the deep oceans and from Latin America to space.

The BRI is reminiscent of the ancient Silk Road, as it was pivotal in the rise and fall of cities from the Pacific to the Mediterranean. China has closed a significant chunk of the global infrastructure gap, raising hopes that the BRI can reduce global poverty. However, local communities around the world affected by the BRI must grapple with the challenges associated with sustainable development due to increased land use, labor conditions and environmental impacts. Most BRI projects involve significant land use changes, the expansion of major infrastructure, and the intensification of social and environmental processes. However, in many host countries, environmental regulations and impact assessments related to BRI infrastructure are inadequate. For example, companies responsible for the construction of BRI projects do not pay sufficient attention to international environmental requirements and the environmental requirements of host countries, nor do they adequately inform the affected population about the impact of these projects. In Colombo, Sri Lanka in particular, scientists and environmentalists have argued that dredging to build a new urban port has devastated Colombo’s coastline, coral reefs and fish hatcheries. This has increased the risk of erosion and flooding in areas prone to natural disasters, while affecting the livelihoods of the people who live on Colombo’s beaches and rely on the marine ecosystem for fishing.

The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly complicated the BRI, drastically shaking and challenging its development. In January 2020, to stop the spread of the pandemic, China closed its borders to the rest of the world, cutting off communications with the majority of the population and reducing the capacity of companies to assess, negotiate and finalize new projects. Many prominent BRI partner countries are facing a debt crisis and these pressures are related to the strength of the dollar, high oil and food prices and the collapse of the tax base during the pandemic. These deepening problems have undermined the ability of host countries to consider ambitious capital spending in traditional BRI sectors such as transport and logistics. The slowdown in Chinese capital flows and the financial aftershocks faced by domestic Chinese small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have reduced investor enthusiasm for the BRI, potentially reducing investment in the BRI’s smaller, less important markets. In addition, some BRI infrastructure projects are facing financial difficulties related to the pandemic, including the Kuntzwi Dam energy project in Zimbabwe, which is being contracted by Sinohydro Corporation. Additionally, speculation about the sustainability of the BRI increased during the pandemic. Investors have contested the long-term viability of the BRI for a variety of reasons, including the perennial debt problem, a global decline in foreign investment, and the unsupportive stance of the US government and the European Union.

As of the end of November 2022, more than 600 million cases of COVID-19 had been diagnosed worldwide, and the long-term lockdowns resulting from the pandemic will continue to have complex effects even after the world reopens. However, the crisis afflicting the BRI goes far beyond the problems predicted.

(220921) — URUMQI, Sept. 21, 2022 (Xinhua) — A freight train departs the China-Europe Railway Express Hub in Urumqi, capital of northwest China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Feb. 20, 2020. (Xinhua/Ding Lei)

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, wars and related economic sanctions have repeatedly resulted in shocks to global stock markets, currency markets, crude oil, food and non-ferrous metal futures markets. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine not only caused irreparable loss of life and economic damage, but also fundamentally changed the geopolitical landscape and direction of the world. Lying at the crossroads of Eastern and Western Europe, Ukraine is of geostrategic importance as a necessary route for the development of China’s “Belt and Road” program. The protracted war also had a major side effect for Russia’s ally – China. It has created a broken loop in the BRI project, particularly in the rail freight route connecting China and Europe via Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus. This China-Europe route has been a huge success since its inception. Due to the war, this route through Ukraine was completely closed, and the Central European Railway was forced to bypass Russia, Ukraine and Belarus and make a detour south to Europe. To make matters worse, many operators have also decided to withdraw from this transport route through Russia and Belarus due to European Union sanctions against Russia. In addition, the problems of poor logistics, rising labor costs and difficulties in settling trades with Russia due to the exclusion of Russian banks from the international settlement system SWIFT have made the situation even more daunting. The heightened geopolitical conflicts associated with the COVID-19 pandemic are bound to cast a shadow over the development of the BRI.

As the Chinese government continues to fine-tune its recent pandemic prevention and control measures, the Chinese economy may gradually recover from the negative impact of COVID-19. In this context, China’s gradual easing of the pandemic policy will greatly affect the renewal of the “Belt and Road” projects. However, the climate crisis, the post-pandemic impact and the increase in conflicts around the world have threatened the achievement of the United Nations’ 17 global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) along the “Belt and Road”. As many of the BRI investments are placed on a high-carbon development path, there could be a shift away from the SDGs and less attention to social and environmental standards, especially without pressure from multilateral organizations.

All of the above crises are believed to have prompted the BRI to adopt a green strategy. Most discussions of sustainability have focused on how the BRI can impact the environment or society. Sustainability is a key component to the future of the BRI, as BRI countries alone could make global warming worse if insufficient action is taken. However, sustainability is a trend that has the potential to impact the future of BRI. It has been suggested that the BRI must go “green” by moving away from high-carbon industries and projects such as coal-fired power. To incorporate sustainable development into China’s commitment to become carbon neutral by 2060, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the PRC published the Guidance on Promoting Green Belt and Road in 2017 and established the BRI International Green Development Coalition (now the Green BRI Centre ). in 2019. Sustainability needs to get back on the agenda and take a more strategic position to make China’s promise of carbon neutrality by 2060 a reality. A BRI sustainability perspective may be most beneficial as the SDGs clearly aim to help everyone on the planet and have been seen as the most widely shared international agenda. The future of the BRI, with its far-reaching implications, could make or break the SDGs, especially in the post-pandemic era.

Global efforts must be made to further strengthen the sustainability agenda by helping host countries set legally binding standards. For example, multilateral financing of sustainable infrastructure in BRI host countries, which could potentially mitigate their debt exposure, has been suggested as one of many possible solutions. The standards for BRI investing could revolve around SDGs, ecological civilizations, or even some other sustainability-focused policy in a world that relies on converging rather than competing ideas. In this scenario, Chinese values ​​would make the BRI neither Western nor Chinese, but a thoroughly hybrid paradigm of global cooperation.

I. Apostolopoulou, E. (2021). Tracing the links between infrastructure-driven development, urban transformation and inequality in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Antipode, 53(3), 831-858.

ii. https://cdn.odi.org/media/documents/odi_economic_pulse_2_final12feb.pdf

iii. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/