Odds for the World Series 2023: Astros and Rangers liable for sports betting

Patrick Everson

FOX sports betting analyst

As the final month of Major League Baseball’s regular season approaches, the World Series odds are getting more and more interesting.

No, there hasn’t been a change at the top recently as the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers still rank first and second in odds of winning the World Series.

But in the last month, the Chicago Cubs and especially the Seattle Mariners have come to the fore.

Casey Degnon, Senior Risk Supervisor at The SuperBook, explains the current status of the World Series futures market.

Chicago style

The Cubs’ rise actually began more than a month ago. Chicago clinched eight straight wins from July 21-29. In the month of August to August 24th there are 13 to 7 young animals. So for the past month, Chicago has had a strong 21-9 record, advanced into an NL wild card slot, and is closing in on the No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.

Accordingly, the championship chances of the Cubs have improved significantly.

“In the past few weeks, we’ve seen the Cubs World Series odds halve, from 60/1 to 30/1,” Degnon said. “However, that does not necessarily mean that we have taken more action on the part of the public. There were a few smaller bets at 50/1 and 60/1 but nothing special.”

That means the Cubbies – usually a very well known team in MLB betting markets and therefore usually a drag on sportsbooks – aren’t a huge drag at The SuperBook.

“The Cubs are about mid-table in terms of ticket count and in the bottom half of the league in terms of dollars at stake,” Degnon said. “Surprisingly, there is almost no liability for the SuperBook in the event of a Cubs World Series or NL pennant win. We’re a very small loser to the Cubs.”

“So we’re not actively cheering for Chicago. But if they pull off a miracle and they win it all, we wouldn’t break our sleep over it.”

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Seattle Surge

Meanwhile, the Mariners are scorching hot in August, having two eight-game winning streaks while going into games 16-5 on Aug. 25. And that after an 8:3 run until the end of July.

At 71-56, the Mariners are practically second to the Houston Astros in the AL West, one game behind the Texas Rangers. The reaction of the odds makers was remarkable.

“The Mariners have gone from 30/1 to 10/1 at the World Series in the last few weeks but the public doesn’t seem too interested,” Degnon said, noting that betting interest in the M’s has been limited. “There were a few jumps along the way, but lately there haven’t been any significant bets on Seattle winning everything. The Mariners are close to the top 10 in both ticket count and money, albeit at lower odds, so we haven’t built up liability.” There.

“We are a winner for the Mariners in the World Series market. However, we have a certain probability that they will win the AL pennant.” [action] earlier in the season.

The good the bad and the ugly

In most cases, teams at or near the top of the World Series odds list mean a better result for The SuperBook than for its clients. Degnon noted that the +300 favorite Braves and the +400 second choice Dodgers are both good behind the counter.

However, factoring in all eight states where The SuperBook operates — Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Iowa and Tennessee — Degnon is ideally placed for a few other AL teams.

“The Blue Jays or even the up and coming Orioles would be a good World Series winner for us,” he said.

Baltimore is currently the +800 fifth pick along with the Cubs and Toronto is the +3000 Co-11. Choice.

Basically, the SuperBook’s biggest concern is the state of Texas. Degnon said reigning World Series champion Astros “didn’t get a great result in Nevada” but that Rangers were the real culprit.

“A lot of liability, one of our biggest issues in terms of MLB futures.” [markets] in Nevada,” Degnon said. “Rangers are definitely a team that we’re hoping to get eliminated early in the playoffs so we can avoid that sweat.” The public believed in Rangers at the start of the year and we have some liability that carries through into dating back to March and up to 80/1 and 60/1.

Texas is now all in the +700 co-third pick, along with the Astros.

Right now, only one NL team is of particular concern at The SuperBook: the surprise Cincinnati Reds, who are still in the midst of the NL Central and wild card chase. However, the Reds sit at +5000 in the World Series odds market, putting them behind a dozen other teams.

“The Reds are another team that the public approved of when they started winning and that’s definitely reflected in our outlook for the future,” said Degnon. “It would be a fun story, but not the Cinderella we’re cheering for this year.”

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a respected journalist in the national sports betting field. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in 110 degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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