Oops. As expected, Mac Jones threw everything over the Ravens last week, but as we feared, he never really connected in the end zone. He even drove one in! Between that minor misfortune and Derrick Henry, who barely dragged his total over the line, it was a second 5-5 straight week. Mitigated by some plus money plays, we lost just 0.15 units and moved up to 17-13 (+3.75 units) for the season.
Alvin Kamara for 26.5 yards (-115)
The good folks at theScore Bet wouldn’t give me an Andy Dalton check-down total, so that’ll have to do. Dalton kept Cowboy fed during his season in Dallas, but the Saints’ short passing game is better when it runs through Kamara. The Vikings have given up the seventh most yards to running backs this campaign. Whether it’s volume or a big play, Kamara is erasing that total for the first time this season.
Lamar Jackson for 231.5 yards (-115)
Speaking of Dalton, the league MVP by three weeks is being lined up like he’s Dalton. Perhaps a potentially sloppy bettor is pushing that total down. However, a game script that could pull off big plays and quick hits should give Jackson ample opportunity to set up passing yards against the Bills’ struggling secondary.
Khalil Herbert for 75.5 rushing yards (-115)
If you’ve been reading this week’s look at the NFL futures markets, you know we have some low-risk, high-reward hopes for Herbert. The little-known Traffic Jam gets most of the work done this week with David Montgomery. That’s a timely opportunity for him against a porous Giants run defense that was slashed Monday night. It’s Herbert’s time to shine, and he will on Sunday.
Jacoby Brissett under 29.5 pass attempts (-110)
This bet doesn’t really have anything to do with Brissett. It’s more about the Browns finally having some soft-run defense in front of them. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should share a lot of carries, but their lines of 89.5 and 43.5 rushing yards, respectively, are too rich for my blood. Instead, we’re betting that Brissett either doesn’t have to do much or his play-action attempts gain wide reach. However, it will keep his overall passing attempts low.
Travis Etienne over 2.5 receptions (-110)
They don’t get extra money to find a new bet, so we’ll continue to include Etienne as long as the Jaguars include him in the passing game. Jacksonville doesn’t have the offensive line to take the sting out of the Eagles’ passing frenzy, so it needs to hold a tight end in play to block. And the fast throws should go to Etienne.
Garrett Wilson for 45.5 yards (-115)
Zach Wilson is back. You might think there’ll be a change in who gets the Jets’ offensive goals given that slot receiver Braxton Berrios had the most yardage in five of the 12 full games Zach played last season. However, Garrett Wilson has frequently queued in the slot, giving him a chance to use his elusiveness to earn a free release in men’s coverage. Wherever he competes, make sure Wilson-to-Wilson has a part to play in Zach’s season debut.
Jonathan Taylor under 95.5 rushing yards (-115)
How much confidence do you have in three games? The Titans have conceded the league’s worst 5.8 yards-per-carry this season, but most of that came from Saquon Barkley in Week 1. Tennessee placed in the top five when it stopped the run in 2021, holding Taylor for just 64 and 70 yards in his two hits against the Colts during the running back’s career year.
Jared Goff under 253.5 yards (-115)
The Lions lineup will be 330 yards short Sunday, and that was before Detroit ruled out anyone other than Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. And I’m supposed to think that doesn’t affect Goff’s mileage? Even if we think the Seahawks will win this game, Detroit is still favored — suggesting they’re in more of a run-first game state.
Demarcus Lawrence over 0.5 sacks (-130)
Carson Wentz has been sacked an incredible five times per game this season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys used the presence of Micah Parsons to create opportunities for others on the Dallas defensive line last week, and Demarcus Lawrence found himself with three sacks. We’re jeopardizing our 1-0 sackprop record here.
Russell Wilson under 242.5 yards (-115)
We may be playing at the bottom end of the market here, but the only time Wilson has exceeded that total was in Week 1. That night in Seattle was a perfect storm of circumstances with the Broncos trailing behind and a soft pass defense. This game should be close, and Denver seem aware that their running game gives them the best chance of winning while a desperate Raiders team will focus on Wilson on defense.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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