Aaron Rodgers is averaging 257.2 yards per game this season. Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images/AFP.
The NFL playoff futures market has value, especially when you look at the passing and rushing leader odds.
The market for the most passing yards in the playoffs has been a very accurate reflection of the postseason for the past three seasons. The leaders all played in the Super Bowl and won.
However, the market for rushing yards playoff leaders is much more volatile. In 2019, Derrick Henry and Raheem Mostert took first and second place respectively, but neither played in the Super Bowl.
Let’s examine these two NFL playoff futures markets and highlight one player who offers the best value in each category.
NFL Playoff Futures: Most Passing Yards Odds
Passing Yards Leader Best Value Bet: Aaron Rodgers
The current playoff format was implemented last season. Tom Brady played a game more than Patrick Mahomes due to the Kansas City Chiefs bye in the first round. Brady defeated Mahomes by 211 yards because of that extra contest.
My eyes leap to Aaron Rodgers as I evaluate this prop. The Packers were given a +380 chance of winning the Super Bowl, but Rodgers was rated at +1000 to be the playoff passing yards leader.
Rodgers in the bag for a Super Bowl favorite at these odds is a solid bet. Another quarterback could play four games instead of three after the Packers earned a first-round bye. However, you can wait and see how the postseason plays out and place a hedging bet if needed. Rodgers odds are long enough to offer numerous hedging options.
By far the most valuable number on him is on DraftKings Sportsbook. BetMGM posted Rodgers at +650 and FanDuel is offering +600.
Best price: +1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook
NFL Playoff Futures: Most Rushing Yards Odds
Rushing Yards Leader Best Value Bet: Josh Allen
Henry is the favorite in this market, but his +600 odds are too short for me. His workload remains unclear, the Titans could play a game fewer after a bye, and there is some uncertainty about Tennessee’s championship contender status. So I’m looking for a long shot.
There aren’t many high-end talents running back in the playoffs this year. Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb and Dalvin Cook are watching from home. Because of this, Josh Allen offers the best combination of skill, potential team success and attractive odds.
Allen has a much better chance of becoming the playoff rushing leader than his +6600 odds at BetMGM suggest. It’s borderline theft if you get your hands on that number. Don’t settle for +4000 on DraftKings or +4900 on FanDuel when BetMGM is available to you.
Best price: +6500 via BetMGM