The off-season could be the perfect time to pick a Super Bowl winner, as the odds tend to diminish as the regular season approaches.
With many teams moving through trades, free agency and the NFL draft, our pre-season betting experts offer insights into who they think offers the best value across the Super Bowl, Conference and Division futures -Markets offers.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Which team is your favorite player to win the Super Bowl next season?
Aaron Schatz, Editor-in-Chief of Football Outsiders: Give me the Philadelphia Eagles (+3000). Yes, there are still questions about Jalen hurts at quarterback. But the Eagles added a ton of talent in the offseason, and Football Outsiders now has Philadelphia in the top 10 by a moderate margin on both offense and defense. The Eagles also have the easiest projected schedule in the league and should be vying for a No. 1 and a first-round bye, even if they’re not as good as the Buccaneers or Rams.
Eric Moody, ESPN Betting Analyst: I like the Denver Broncos (+1600). Russell Wilson’s offseason signing is huge. He won a Super Bowl with the Seahawks and should have won two. Wilson made the playoffs in eight of his ten seasons with Seattle and would end Denver’s playoff drought. He will be the centerpiece of the team and has a stellar supporting cast in Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Javonte Williams with an impressive defense. Wilson is poised for a stellar season in 2022 as the Chiefs’ reign of the AFC West comes to an end.
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Erin Dolan, ESPN Betting Analyst: The Buffalo Bills (+650). The Bills will be hungry after losing a heartthrob in overtime to the Chiefs in the AFC divisional round. Josh Allen is entering his fifth season as a pro after throwing for 4,407 yards and 36 touchdowns while adding 763 rushing yards and six touchdowns on the ground. He can pull off insane numbers and will continue to do so with Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary and the likes. Plus, the addition of Von Miller on the sidelines will only help the Bills’ already strong defenses. Buffalo has the offense and defense to win the AFC East, the Conference and then the Super Bowl if they can stay healthy.
Tyler Fulghum, ESPN Betting Analyst: The Baltimore Ravens (+2200). Baltimore was a Super Bowl favorite last year with an 8-3 record in Week 10 before Lamar Jackson was injured. The Ravens struggled with a plethora of injuries last season as JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Ronnie Stanley, Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey and Derek Wolfe all missed time. If Baltimore can only stay healthy, they will once again have a roster to rival the AFC’s elite. The additions of Marcus Williams in free agency and Kyle Hamilton and Tyler Linderbaum in April’s draft were widely considered smart and accomplished. I expect the Ravens to win AFC North and go head to head in the playoffs with the Buffalo Bills and the teams emerging from AFC West.
With the NFC being the perceived weaker conference, given the potentially easier route to the Super Bowl, are you looking at NFC teams rather than AFC teams?
Treasure: Surprise! Our predictions at Football Outsiders aren’t actually dominated by the AFC. Six of the top 10 teams in the proposed DVOA are NFC teams, not AFC teams. The AFC is better throughout the conference while the NFC is more separated, with teams looking good and teams looking very bad. The five worst teams in the DVOA projections are also NFC teams.
Dolan: The AFC is the overarching conference. A team from the AFC will probably win the Super Bowl in my eyes. With that in mind, eliminating the AFC and picking an NFC team based on the competition and road to the Super Bowl could be successful. It makes perfect sense to look at NFC teams. It’s all preference.
Moody: While the AFC has lost the last two Super Bowls, it had won five of the previous six games. The NFC is very top heavy and I only see the Buccaneers and Packers as the best bets to win the Super Bowl in this division. I think it will be difficult for the Rams to repeat the title, a feat not matched since 2004. Therefore, betting on AFC teams seems more attractive.
The AFC is packed this year with so many players moving to or joining AFC teams. Which team do you think has the best value in this conference?
Fulghum: The Los Angeles Chargers (+850) offer the best value for money in the AFC for me. They’re probably as deep as the bills. The only difference is they still have a QB on a rookie deal. They receive a much larger percentage of their cap on the rest of their roster than any other AFC contender in the league.
Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers are priced at +850 for the AFC but have to make it past a loaded AFC West Division. ` Photo/Ashley Landis
Dolan: Futures are about value and usually the favorite on the board isn’t what you want to bet in June. But I think the Bills will win the AFC. If you look at the board, Buffalo has +350 odds of winning the conference, with Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, and the Cleveland Browns rounding out the top 5. The Bills are in the middle of the table in terms of schedules, while the three AFC West teams will each face off twice over the course of the season. On paper, despite how competitive the conference may be, the Bills have the best chance of winning with their squad.
Moody: The Dolphins offer value in a loaded AFC conference. Miami has dramatically improved its roster, adding Tyreek Hill and Terron Armstead this offseason. Head Coach Mike McDonald runs Kyle Shanahan’s quarterback-friendly system that should help Tua Tagovailoa improve. If Tagovailoa can effectively deliver the football into the hands of the Dolphins’ playmakers, Miami should be able to win over 8.5 games.
The Bengals shocked everyone last season when they ran to the Super Bowl. Is there a team worth betting on that could do the same this year?
Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics Writer: The Pittsburgh Steelers reach the Super Bowl 40-1. They just need one big break: that Kenny Pickett is good right away. If so, their receivers are solid and their defenses are made up of some elite players.
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Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN Betting Analyst: The Indianapolis Colts at 25-1. Houston and Jacksonville are still rebuilding and I think the Titans will take a big step backwards after the AJ Brown trade. That gives Indy an excellent shot at both a playoff berth and a home playoff game to open the postseason by winning the AFC South. Matt Ryan is past his prime but has enough available with a much better offensive line to provide consistent results for a balanced roster.
Anita Marks, ESPN Betting Analyst: Fly eagle, fly! The additions of AJ Brown and James Bradberry to free agency and the drafting of Jordan Davis to complement an already strong defensive line make me think they will win the NFC East. The Eagles have one of the lightest schedules in the league, winning 12 games to earn first place and home field advantage in the playoffs.
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