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NFL 2022 Regular-Season Sacks Leader Picks: TJ Watt Looking for 3-Peat

Linebacker TJ Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers reacts during the first half of the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Heinz Field on September 19, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images via AFP.

The NFL’s sack leader last year was TJ Watt for the second straight season. He amassed 22.5 sacks for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Here’s a look at the best bets to lead the NFL in sacks this season.

There are several sportsbooks that offer futures markets where you can bet on who will lead the NFL in a specific statistical category. To see if there are any significant gaps between the predictions and the betting markets, I decided to compare these odds to the predictions from FantasyPros, ESPN and PFF.

After comparing predictions to odds of leading the NFL in sacks, the following players stand out to me.

2022 NFL Regular-Season Sacks Leader Odds

player FantasyPros, ESPN, PFF average projection fan duel DraftKings Caesars
TJ Watts 15.1 +650 +600 +700
Myles Garrett 13.5 +700 +750 +500
Nick Bosa 12.5 +1600 +1000 +1200
Trey Hendrickson 11.6 +1400 +1700 +1500
Aaron Donald 11.4 +1400 +1700 +1000
Brian Burns 9.6 +4000 +4000 +3000
Matt Judon 9.5 +3000 +3500 +2500
Micah Parsons 9.3 +2000 +2200 +1800
Joey Bosa 9.3 +2000 +1200 +1800
Shaquil beret 9.3 +2500 +1700 +2000
Rashan Gary 9.1 +3000 +2000 +3000
Cameron Jordan 8.7 +2500 +2500 +2000
By Miller 8.7 +3000 +2500 +3000
Haason Reddick 8.5 +4000 +10000 +2500
Leonard Floyd 8.4 +3000 +5000 N / A
Danielle Jaeger 8.4 +1600 +2000 +1500
Robert Quinn 8.3 +3000 +1700 +2500
Khalil Mack 8.2 +2000 +1700 +1500
Max Crosby 8.1 +3000 +2200 +2000
Za’Darius Smith 8th +3000 +3500 +2000
Harold Landry 7.9 +4000 +2500 +3500
Markus Davenport 7.8 +5000 +8000 N / A
Emmanuel Ogbah 7.8 +5000 +5000 N / A
Yannick Ngakoue 7.6 +5000 +5000 +5000
Chandler Jones 7.5 +2000 +1200 +1500
Romeo Okwara 7.1 +5000 +15000 N / A
Josh Allen 7 +5000 +10000 N / A
Chris Jones 6.6 +4000 +6500 N / A

Leading Sacks Regular Season Best Bets

Burns (+4000)

In his fourth season in the NFL, the 24-year-old Florida State edge rusher is being overlooked in the opening odds.

If Dallas Cowboys’ Brian Burns and Micah Parsons switched teams, what would their chances be to lead the NFL in sacks? There aren’t many people who are aware that Burns is expected to pick up more sacks than Parsons this season.

Despite being sixth in sack predictions, Burns sits 20th on the FanDuel odds board at +4000. There is no doubt that you are looking at Burns’ price relative to his prediction as he is not as well known as some of the other players in this market as he plays for the Carolina Panthers.

At the end of the day, this is a market and sportsbooks don’t expect to be associated with Burns. They should be careful what they wish for though as they will get some liability from me as I don’t think Burns should have a +4000 price tag to lead the NFL in sacks.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted sports betting reviews from SBR.

Reddick (+10000)

There are times when you analyze the numbers and find nothing worth betting on, and then there are times when you find a massive outlier among the odds. It seems we found a massive outlier in Haason Reddick and my money will be at his +10000 odds at DraftKings.

You should use this price as soon as possible, since it is only incorrectly valued at DraftKings and this could be corrected very quickly. Compared to DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars gave Reddick a much more accurate price of +3000 and +2500 respectively.

Price advantage aside, I also believe Reddick has the ability to lead the NFL in sacks. Over the past two seasons, he has accumulated the fifth-most sacks in the NFL. This offseason, the former Temple Owl returned to his hometown by joining the Philadelphia Eagles.

Given that bettors are constantly looking for ways to back the Eagles, Reddick’s mis-rating presents an opportunity to capitalize if you expect the Eagles to win a significant number of games this season. If the Eagles want to win games, their opponents will be forced to pass the ball a lot. As a result, Reddick should have plenty of opportunities to rush the passerby.

Additionally, we’ve all seen how strong rookie Jordan Davis will be inside for opposing offensive lines. With teams forced to double Davis on the inside, imagine the pass-rushing opportunities Reddick could have on the outside.

Fade Chandler Jones (+2000 via FanDuel)

It’s pretty obvious that there’s a bias towards past winners and big names when you compare predictions to multiple players’ chances of leading the NFL in sacks. This is most evident in the odds for Chandler Jones.

In 2017, Jones led the NFL with 17 in sacks and came nearly the same in 2019 when he had 19 and finished just behind Shaquil Barrett. As a result of Jones’ history in this market, sportsbooks like DraftKings opened his price at +1200, which is way too low.

During the two seasons that Jones recorded 17 and 19 sacks, he tumbled the passer over 600 times. Despite being very efficient last season, Jones only rushed the passer 480 times due to his advancing age.

Based on the odds board, there are several players who have passed their prime but are rated lower based on their past performance.

Even at +2000, Jones is a slight fade and this tendency should be kept in mind when evaluating other players. Lower prices for previous Superstars create scenarios where lesser-known commodities see longer prices, as we saw with Burns.

Where to bet on 2022 NFL futures

SEE ALSO: All tips, odds and sports betting news. Be sure to check out the SportsbookReview.com community forums and betting tools.

NFL Sacks leader picks were hit on 08/31/2022 at 3:14pm ET

Written by:
Jon Metler

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Jon Metler is a sports betting analyst at SportsbookReview.com. He has been in sports betting for over 12 years and specializes in futures markets. He keeps a close eye on futures market movements across a variety of sports in search of value. He is a firm believer in analytics and always being one step ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. Jon covers futures markets in the MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAF, NCAAB, PGA Tour and LPGA. A lifelong Detroit Tigers fan, he still has nightmares of Torii Hunter knocking over the Boston Red Sox’s bullpen. After redeeming consecutive LPGA Money List futures tickets priced up to +8000 in 2020, Jon serves as the President of the Jin Young Ko Fan Club. Jon has a bachelor’s degree in Physical Education from the University of Windsor. You can find him watching games, listening to sports, or looking for his golf ball in the woods.

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