Do you remember the greatest show on the pitch?
The then-St. Louis Rams, who had a 4-12 record in 1998, with a struggling offense that didn't change until 1999 when Kurt Warner was promoted to the starting job.
Once Warner took the lead, the rest was history. This Rams team led the NFL in 1999 with a high-octane offense that ran their opponents off the field. Warner was instrumental in this attack, smashing opponents with passes and distributing the ball to his receivers. Warner later won the NFL MVP award and led a Rams team that ultimately won the Super Bowl that season.
Maybe this season we'll see history repeat itself in the NBA.
The Indiana Pacers had a 35-47 record in the 2022-23 season and ranked 19th in offensive rating. Indiana's young point guard Tyrese Haliburton played well and showed a lot of potential as the floor general of his offense. A season later, Haliburton has made a huge leap, quarterbacking a Pacers team that led the NBA in offensive rating and catapulted into the Eastern Conference playoffs. Haliburton and the Pacers reached the first NBA championship game of the season on Saturday night with an improbable run, beating two teams with the best records in the East, the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks
In Haliburton, the Pacers are playing like the NBA's 1999 version of the Rams. Indiana has become the biggest show on the court and must-see schedule television. The Pacers are a joy to watch, not only because of their fast-paced and highly efficient offense, but also because they rank second to last in defensive rating, which means their opponents also tend to have highly dynamic, highly efficient offenses. top-class performances.
But how does Haliburton do what he does? And what are his chances of winning In-Season Tournament MVP (+150 on ESPN BET), Best Player (+400) and NBA MVP (+1500)?
Let us explore these questions below.
What does Haliburton’s “leap” look like?
Tyrese Haliburton led the Indiana Pacers to their first NBA Tournament championship game this season and could ` Photo/Ian Maule
Haliburton is the focal point of the Pacers' offense, a dribbling maestro who always passes the ball to his teammates in shooting position. He creates open looks by testing opposing defenses on rebounds and threatening with elite long-range shots that force defenses to spread out on him. Haliburton then uses his speed and length (he's 6-foot-3) to either attack the rim or draw up defenses and set up assists. His numbers reflect this.
Haliburton leads the NBA with 12.1 APG, a significant lead over runner-up Trae Young (10.6 APG). He also leads the league with 531 passes resulting in a shot (per Second Spectrum), putting him ahead of Nikola Jokic (493). Among the top 10 players with the most passes resulting in a shot, Haliburton's 98.0 completion rate is second only to Tyrese Maxey (98.6 completion rate) and second in assist-to-turnover ratio of 5.4, third among full-time starting point guards.
These advanced metrics, beyond the box score, tell an important story: Haliburton not only generates a high number of shots for his teammates, but does so with incredible efficiency. He is rarely sloppy when it comes to basketball, which is reflected in his NBA record of over 25 assists without turnovers and over 50 points in the last two games this week.
And he's just playing it safe. In Thursday's win over the Bucks, Haliburton delivered an alley-oop from half court that Obi Toppin completed with a reverse dunk. He outruns his teammates openly, looks good and rarely makes mistakes despite the difficulty, NBA quarterbacking at its finest.
But Haliburton isn't just a passer and floor general. His elite scoring ability is also part of the package that makes him such a weapon in the Pacers' offense. Haliburton has posted a 4.0 3PG, fifth in the NBA, and is hitting treys with a career-high 44.1 3P%…although it should be noted that he has shot at least 40% from distance in every season of his career .
And Haliburton creates his shots almost exclusively off the dribble. According to Basketball-Reference, Haliburton was assisted on just 36.6% of his 3-point shots and 23.5% of his shots overall. That means about one in three of Haliburton's three-pointers is assisted, and about one in four of his shots overall. He creates the rest of his scoring volume himself and is still able to finish at an outstanding level. Haliburton's true shooting percentage is 67.4 (TS%, also includes 3-pointers and free throws), first in the NBA among guards and just ahead of Stephen Curry (67.1 FG%). Like his passing, Haliburton's scoring efficiency is not a byproduct of safety, as he is averaging 26.9 PPG, 12th in the NBA.
Can Haliburton take home some hardware?
Tyrese Haliburton is currently +1500 to win the NBA MVP award on ESPN BET. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images
Haliburton leads the NBA in assists, is among the leaders in scoring, is extremely efficient as both a passer and scorer and leads the NBA's best offense. He's also leading the Pacers to start the season winning at a rate few expected… including a championship game in the current tournament. Haliburton is putting together one heck of a resume, which begs the question: Is he a legitimate candidate for any NBA awards?
He is currently +150 to win the season tournament MVP, but the award will likely depend on who wins the championship. If the Pacers upset the Lakers on Saturday night, Haliburton is almost guaranteed to be the MVP of the tournament. That's why his MVP odds and the Pacers' moneyline odds to win the game on ESPN BET are identical. The Pacers have thrived as underdogs throughout the tournament, giving Haliburton a good chance of winning.
Look for Haliburton in the Player Market with the most upgrades (+400). Tyrese Maxey (+110) has been the prohibitive favorite for MIP so far this season and Haliburton didn't seem like a likely candidate since he was already an All Star averaging 20 PPG and 10 APG, which didn't seem to have enough room for improvement for the award. But his brilliant start to the season showed that even an All Star can make a leap. His improvement to more like 27 and 12 is astounding, and in recent weeks Haliburton's averages are closer to 32 and 13. If Haliburton continues this pace and leads the Pacers into the playoffs, he has a completely realistic chance to win MIP.
He also has a puncher's chance to win MVP (+1500). Haliburton entered the season as such a huge underdog that I didn't see a realistic possibility of him winning. But his play during the season's tournament has caught the attention of players, fans and awards voters. If Haliburton is able to average a historic 30 PPG and 10 APG while leading the Pacers to the top four in the East and earning high-profile accolades like a tournament championship and an in-season MVP, he definitely would be a suitable candidate for the MVP title at the end of the season. Given the way he's played so far, I don't think the list of “what ifs” is too far-fetched.
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