World equity indices cash and US index futures π
The major Asian stocks performed strongly as they all traded at two-week highs. The Hang Seng (+2.06%) led to price rallies in the Kospi (+1.49%) and Shanghai Comp (+1.31%), while the Nikkei (+1.70%) surged to a new yearly high. Europe followed with steadily higher sessions for the FTSE (+0.80%) and the DAX (unch). The short-holiday visit remained roughly unchanged.
September 2023 Mini SP sequel
The majors closed at their best levels in two weeks on Friday, while the mini-SP closed at a high for the year. Instead of consolidating, the price has chosen to challenge new highs with trend momentum providing a tailwind. A slow climb to the upside with minor consolidations is best to maintain the trend and last week’s hold now represents a key downside level to watch for if prices reverse.
Fixed Income Securities π°
September 2023 30-year sequel
The complex begins with a softer call as downtrend pressure reaches the belly of the curve. The long end marked fresh lows last week but was met with strong supply interest. Divergences remain and although the sellers are stubbornly in control, the struggle here is still ongoing. Since then, prices have reversed their losses following the weaker 10:00 PMI release.
cash currencies π΅
USDJPY cash
The π² remained net unchanged throughout the early morning. Both π° 109.05 and π¦ 126.90 have found much-needed support while consolidating recent gains. π¦ 0.6660 and π₯ 0.6140 are calm while π― 144.50 trades near trend highs, but remains vulnerable and looks to fixed income for direction (bearish momentum divergence remains stubborn). π132.60 finds resistance at previous support around 133.00.
precious and base metals βοΈ
August 2023 Gold Sequel
Both π₯$1,930 and π₯$23.20 are attempting to clear recent lows. Bullish momentum divergence setups increase the likelihood of a price rally, however this action relieves some of the pressure. π₯$3.80 is back up and erasing almost all of last week’s losses, a healthy correction that has cooled the overbought pressure . If the price can hold last week’s lows, renewed speculative interest could emerge. The odd momentum divergence continues to suggest that one should sit back and watch the price, and patient traders might be best waiting for these markets to clear up on next steps.
energy β‘
August 2023 Crude Oil continued
π’οΈ $70.90 is quietly the third consecutive higher high/higher low session. There is still a lot of hard work ahead if the price is to truly turn around, but it’s a start. The continuous support price floor directly impacted a mixed bullish divergence setup and reduced the pressure that could still result in a trigger. The action inside the supply curve represents an impressive reversal as X/Z is now trading backwards at 0.20. Both πͺ$2.42 and β½$2.53 are weaker, but have impressively fought out of smaller downtrends. It is also difficult to confirm spreads unequivocally. π₯ $2.70 continues to consolidate recent gains.
Agriculture π§βπΎπ©βπΎ
November 2023 soybeans daily
Complex pricing works despite the hangover, thanks to last Friday’s USDA report on US acreage planted. π½ (Sep) $4.95 fell sharply, while π± (Nov) rallied $13.65 in response to the headlines. π (Sep) $6.50 holds Friday low, trading directionless. Spreads overall reacted to the releases in line with the clear price action.
crypto futures πͺ
Micro-BTC sequel in July 2023
Both βΏ ($30,950) and ETH ($1,990) are higher but endured wild sessions on Friday as the price reacted to headlines about issues with upcoming Bitcoin ETF launches.
Good luck today!
John
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